The apparent end of the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran is likely to cause gasoline prices to move higher again, reversing their gradual decline over the past few weeks. And Iran isn't the only problem -- Ukraine has lately stepped up its attacks on Russian oil refineries, which could also cause fuel prices to spike.

The average gasoline price in the U.S. is $3.80 a gallon, according to AAA. That's down from $3.85 last week and $4.16 a month ago. Consumers should "watch for potential price increases soon," wrote Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. He thinks it could creep back to $4.

Crude oil prices were up 5% on Wednesday morning, following President Donald Trump's statement that the cease-fire is "over." Analysts were cautious, however, to declare that the agreement is officially dead. Iran is in a mourning period over the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What happens next depends in part on how Iran responds after the mourning period, said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad.

"The real test comes after 9 July, once the mourning period ends and both sides show whether there is still an appetite for a diplomatic off-ramp," he wrote.

The flare-up in the war comes as Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian refineries, a tactic it's used before. This week, Ukraine hit Russia's largest oil refinery, which will almost certainly decrease overall fuel supplies around the world. Russia is even considering blocking fuel exports.

Most oil stocks have been down during the cease-fire period, but refiners have been a rare exception. Shares of Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 were rising on Wednesday. Those companies have been able to buy cheap crude oil during the cease-fire period, and still sell the fuel they make for high prices, because fuel inventories are low in many countries.

An end to the cease-fire would be a mixed bag for the refiners -- they'd be hurt by higher crude prices, but would likely continue to benefit from a scarcity of fuel. Until it's clear how the fuel shortage will be fixed, their stocks should be able to keep their premiums.

Write to Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com

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July 08, 2026 11:21 ET (15:21 GMT)

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