The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0744 GMT - Singapore's core inflation has remained surprisingly muted during the energy shock, but renewed oil-market volatility means it's too early to dismiss risks, Goldman Sachs analysts say. The core inflation response so far partly reflects that--the gauge excludes accommodation and private transport. And since electricity tariffs are reset quarterly based on fuel costs over a prior reference window, the late February energy spike will only emerge in 3Q. The coming 17% tariff increase is big--and will be felt by the 63% of households and businesses on tariff-linked plans. The rest aren't fully insulated either. Whether that remains a one-off MAS can look past, or whether it affects wages, business margins, services prices and inflation expectations remains to be seen. For now, GS thinks MAS will stand pat through 2026. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0736 GMT - The Bank of Japan's regional economic report supports the bank's view of solid economic development and wage growth, says Goldman Sachs economist Akira Otani. The report says that many companies are considering passing on rising costs to consumers from this summer onward, signaling mounting concerns at the central bank over risks of higher prices, Otani says. Thursday's report highlights fears in the retail sector that higher prices are already damping consumer spending. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - Investors are increasingly viewing China tech as an AI efficiency trade, says Charu Chanana, Saxo Markets' chief investment strategist, in a research note. As investors question the cost of the U.S. AI build-out, China's AI development is known for cheaper models, open-source adoption and practical AI deployment, she says. The strategist reckons that the next phase of AI hinges on who can deliver useful AI at the lowest cost, which could put China at an advantage. Chinese AI models have been gradually adopted by global developers and enterprise. Still, Chanana notes that it's "not a clean China recovery trade," as consumer confidence is still fragile. Instead, as investors seek AI exposure beyond the crowded semiconductor trade, they may start to separate China macro risk from China AI potential, she adds.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0732 GMT - Yields on eurozone government bonds and U.K. government bonds, or gilts, fall, reversing some of their steep rise the previous day as oil prices turn lower. Government bond yields rose to multi-week highs on Wednesday due to concerns about high energy prices and inflation risk after President Trump announced that the Iran ceasefire was over. Oil prices jumped but ease back slightly on Thursday. Ten-year German Bund yields fall 1.8 basis points to last trade at 3.067%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year gilt yields fall 3.1 bps to 4.935%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0721 GMT - The Bank of Japan branch managers' reports at Thursday's meeting show that the Japanese economy remains solid nationwide despite headwinds such as Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and a weak yen. Logistics disruptions and raw-material shortages caused by geopolitical risks have weighed on exports and production, the central bank says. However, the risk of a sharp decline has diminished thanks to progress in alternative sourcing and revised transport routes, the bank adds. That is likely to reinforce expectations for an additional interest-rate increase in the near term. The Overnight Index Swaps market is pricing in at least one rate hike by the end of the year. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0721 GMT - China CPI inflation is set to retreat further this month after slowing in June, Nomura analysts say. High-frequency data show that agricultural prices contracted further month-to-date, while cuts to retail petrol prices should lessen the energy boost to the CPI basket. But if the resurgence in oil holds, authorities will likely adjust fuel prices again. In absolute terms, Brent stayed at pre-war levels in the first week of July but spiked Wednesday on reignited geopolitical tensions. If the rebound persists, Nomura could raise inflation forecasts again. For now, it tips 2026 CPI and PPI inflation at 0.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Excluding commodities and chips, underlying inflation remains weak, backing Nomura's view that Beijing will keep monetary policy accommodative and ramp up fiscal spending to boost demand. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0719 GMT - Bitcoin rises modestly but remains stuck within its recent narrow range amid uncertainty over the Iran war and the U.S. interest-rate path. The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire again on Wednesday after President Trump said the ceasefire was over. However, Trump later said Iran had called him seeking a deal. Investors are also weighing the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes which showed policymakers were split over the future course of rates. "While much of the committee agreed that inflation would cool as energy prices fell and one-off tariff impacts subsided, there were some worries of persistent underlying price pressures," Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. Bitcoin rises 1.2% to $62,819, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0715 GMT - The Philippines' 2026 GDP growth is likely to slow, the Asian Development Bank says in a report. The Middle East conflict has weakened external demand, raised global uncertainty, as well as raised input and commodity costs. With higher commodity prices and climate-related risks, the Philippines is seeing softer private consumption and delayed investments. Elevated energy prices are weighing on domestic demand and tourism. The ADB cuts its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to 3.8% from 4.4% previously, and expects the economy to expand 5.3% in 2027. The Philippine economy grew 4.4% in 2025.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0713 GMT - China is unlikely to roll out major stimulus policies in the second half of the year to boost auto sales, Citi analysts write in a note, following a call with Cui Dongshu, secretary general at the China Passenger Car Association. There is likely to be a natural recovery path with sequential improvements from 3Q to 4Q, they reckon. The domestic auto industry consolidation could progress slowly due to price control and local governments' usual preference to prevent large-scale bankruptcies, they say. The industry's seasonal fluctuations may also flatten long-term, as first-time buyer demand shrinks while replacement purchases dominate, smoothing monthly sales peaks and troughs, they add.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0653 GMT - Gold prices climb back above $4,100 a troy ounce after Wednesday's selloff, with New York futures up 0.6% to $4,107.90. The rebound is supported by a softer U.S. dollar and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes again on Wednesday. Still, higher energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer or increase them further. Bullion is typically seen as a hedge ​against inflation, though a higher ​interest-rate environment tends ⁠to diminish the nonyielding asset's appeal. Minutes from the Fed's mid-June policy meeting underscored a hawkish shift across the committee, weighing on the precious metal. "The minutes reaffirm that the door is very much wide open to a September interest rate hike," says Thomas Ryan from Capital Economics. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0632 GMT - The dollar eases after the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes showed policymakers were divided over the future path of interest rates. The minutes were more balanced than the "hawkish interpretation" of the June press conference which boosted expectations for rate rises, Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Many Fed policymakers saw price pressures easing over the medium-term and policy rates could be held steady or gradually reduced, he says. "Our view remains that as long as oil prices don't flare up significantly, we do not see a hike from the Fed this year and still expect the next move to be a cut (potentially next year)." The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 100.817.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0622 GMT - A renewed energy price shock would likely put further pressure on the short end of the German Bund yield curve, Metzler analysts Leon Ferdinand Bost and Uwe Hohmann say in a note. However, they see the upside potential for two-year German bond yields as limited at current levels. "They have significantly lagged behind the drop in oil prices, meaning we are already trading near yearly highs," the analysts say. They find 10-year Bund yields above 3% attractive, even in a negative scenario.according to Tradeweb. Shortly after market open, the two-year Schatz yield falls 1.8 basis points to 2.681%, while the 10-year Bund yield declines 1.9 basis points to 3.065%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 09, 2026 03:44 ET (07:44 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.