The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0800 GMT - China's K-shaped export recovery is contributing to a growing divergence across industries, say Barclays economists in a research note. High-tech sectors, such as semiconductors and electronics, are enjoying expanding profits and stronger pricing power. Meanwhile, traditional industries, including textiles and household consumer goods, face declining profits and persistent price pressures. With strength in headline exports largely concentrated in capital-intensive industries, the positive spillover from exports to the domestic labor market appears limited. "As a result, the export boom is unlikely to translate into a rapid recovery in household income or consumption, which explains the continued softness in domestic demand," Barclays says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0755 GMT - Singapore's headline GDP growth could be more leveraged to the AI capex buildout than expected, Citi economist Wei Zheng Kit says in a note. AI-related sectors within manufacturing and wholesale trade led the above-trend sequential GDP growth in 2Q. Even if Singapore's non-oil domestic export growth moderates in 2H, implied inventory drawdowns could still keep industrial production relatively well supported, he says. Capacity additions in HBM and possibly NAND flash memory could further support production and exports. Also, the AI-related tailwinds to manufacturing have broadened beyond the semiconductor and electronics sectors, into the precision engineering sector, which was lagging behind, he adds. Citi raises its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5%, with some upward potential. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0748 GMT - A retightening of short-term U.S.-eurozone rate differentials is keeping the euro afloat against the dollar amid renewed U.S.-Iran conflict, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The rebound in oil prices came as European Central Bank interest-rate rise expectations were dwindling, leaving room for euro front-end rates to recover, he says. However, this might not offer sustainable support to the euro if energy prices continue rising. Markets could find it difficult to price in more than two ECB rate rises by year-end considering the cautious stance of policymakers recently and the negative terms of trade implications of higher energy prices, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1387 and ING sees a risk of it falling to $1.10.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0744 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, jump to an eight-week high as an escalating U.S.-Iran conflict pushes up oil prices, raising inflation risk. The U.S. attacked Iranian targets for the third consecutive night while Iran said it struck two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors have raised their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in 2026 given the rise in energy prices. Ten-year gilt yields rise 8 basis points to 5.046%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0742 GMT - China's exports are likely to maintain solid momentum, according to UOB economist Ho Woei Chen in a research note. The country's June exports rose at the fastest pace in four months, the economist says. Robust artificial-intelligence investment is likely to continue to support exports in 2H, she says. That said, rising Middle East conflicts and U.S. trade investigations could weigh on Chinese exports in 2H, she adds. Nonetheless, UOB says its current 11% growth forecast for 2026 exports has room to rise. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - Singapore's economy should remain resilient for the rest of this year, says DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng in a report. The city-state's solid 2Q growth was mainly driven by strong trade-related activity. This is due to the ongoing artificial intelligence tailwinds, a trend that he expects to continue in 2H. However, Chua warns that a renewed complete blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and prolonged elevated global energy prices would weigh on the global and Singapore's growth prospects. DBS maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Singapore at 4.3%. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0719 GMT - China's external sector continues to be a bright spot, driven by a global AI-push and recent stabilization in trade relations with the U.S., say HSBC economists in a note. Exports have held up despite volatility from the Middle East conflict and are likely to stay strong, say Erin Xin and Taylor Wang. The AI-demand cycle remains strong, with hi-tech exports rising 52% on year in June. Within this, exports of semiconductors rose 122% and laptops rose 53%, they note. However, domestic activity is likely to show signs of moderation in the coming June print, which could put more onus on policymakers to ramp up support. The July Politburo meeting at month-end will be a key watch point, they add. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0715 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally but continues to trade in a narrow range ahead of U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress. "Bitcoin has been boxed in the same range since mid-June, resistance at $64,441 capping every rally, support at $58,457 absorbing the selling, and the renewed Iran tensions haven't broken it either way," Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva says in a note. Exchange traded funds are split between inflows and outflows, netting slightly positive, in recent days, she says. This stability will be tested with the inflation data at 1230 GMT and Warsh's testimony at 1400 GMT. Bitcoin rises 0.8% to $62,619, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - The Bank of Korea is widely expected to deliver a precautionary 25bp rate hike this week, says HSBC's Jin Choi. That comes amid an overall trend of de-escalation in the Middle East--despite recent flareups--and more stable oil prices. Still, the won remains pressured and core inflation firm, while the growth backdrop has improved. That's enough for the BOK to lean toward a pre-emptive move rather than waiting for oil disinflation, he says. Another point is Korea's AI-led export boom. Export windfalls could filter into demand via wages, capex and fiscal policy, while broader spillovers could firm demand-pull inflation, prompting a deeper hiking cycle. HSBC's call after this week is for one additional 25bp rise in 4Q, with risks skewed to the upside for more in 2027. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - It is crucial for the Japanese government not to increase its debt while the Bank of Japan still holds substantial public debt and foreign ownership remains below 20%, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. The 20% mark is widely seen by analysts as a key threshold that could destabilize bond yields, if crossed. "This is essential not only to retain the short-term confidence of market participants, but also to maintain overall trust in Japanese government bonds in a broader sense," Nakayama says. The 10-year JGB yield was last down 7.5 bps at 2.710%.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0659 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in early trade, with the 10-year German Bund yield hitting an eight-week high of 3.114%, up around 4 basis points on the day, according to Tradeweb. The rise in yields is driven by a sharp increase in oil prices due to elevated tensions between the U.S. and Iran and concerns that the Strait of Hormuz looks unlikely to return to normal. "Rising tensions in the Middle East are dominating markets," Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Eurozone bond markets will also take clues from U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT, as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Congress testimony. Both could shape the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate path. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0643 GMT - The dollar trades steady as investors await U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress. The data at 1230 GMT and Warsh's testimony at 1400 GMT will be key for shaping monetary policy expectations, Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Warsh will probably try to sound credible and stress that the Fed will respond to incoming data and inflation risks, he says. It's too soon for the recent rise in oil prices to feed meaningfully into inflation data, he says. "We are sticking with our view that we do not see any [rate] hike from the Fed this year." The DXY dollar index trades flat at 101.222.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2026 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT)

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