The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0733 GMT - Singapore's economy should remain resilient for the rest of this year, says DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng in a report. The city-state's solid 2Q growth was mainly driven by strong trade-related activity. This is due to the ongoing artificial intelligence tailwinds, a trend that he expects to continue in 2H. However, Chua warns that a renewed complete blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and prolonged elevated global energy prices would weigh on the global and Singapore's growth prospects. DBS maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Singapore at 4.3%. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0719 GMT - China's external sector continues to be a bright spot, driven by a global AI-push and recent stabilization in trade relations with the U.S., say HSBC economists in a note. Exports have held up despite volatility from the Middle East conflict and are likely to stay strong, say Erin Xin and Taylor Wang. The AI-demand cycle remains strong, with hi-tech exports rising 52% on year in June. Within this, exports of semiconductors rose 122% and laptops rose 53%, they note. However, domestic activity is likely to show signs of moderation in the coming June print, which could put more onus on policymakers to ramp up support. The July Politburo meeting at month-end will be a key watch point, they add. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0715 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally but continues to trade in a narrow range ahead of U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress. "Bitcoin has been boxed in the same range since mid-June, resistance at $64,441 capping every rally, support at $58,457 absorbing the selling, and the renewed Iran tensions haven't broken it either way," Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva says in a note. Exchange traded funds are split between inflows and outflows, netting slightly positive, in recent days, she says. This stability will be tested with the inflation data at 1230 GMT and Warsh's testimony at 1400 GMT. Bitcoin rises 0.8% to $62,619, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - The Bank of Korea is widely expected to deliver a precautionary 25bp rate hike this week, says HSBC's Jin Choi. That comes amid an overall trend of de-escalation in the Middle East--despite recent flareups--and more stable oil prices. Still, the won remains pressured and core inflation firm, while the growth backdrop has improved. That's enough for the BOK to lean toward a pre-emptive move rather than waiting for oil disinflation, he says. Another point is Korea's AI-led export boom. Export windfalls could filter into demand via wages, capex and fiscal policy, while broader spillovers could firm demand-pull inflation, prompting a deeper hiking cycle. HSBC's call after this week is for one additional 25bp rise in 4Q, with risks skewed to the upside for more in 2027. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - It is crucial for the Japanese government not to increase its debt while the Bank of Japan still holds substantial public debt and foreign ownership remains below 20%, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. The 20% mark is widely seen by analysts as a key threshold that could destabilize bond yields, if crossed. "This is essential not only to retain the short-term confidence of market participants, but also to maintain overall trust in Japanese government bonds in a broader sense," Nakayama says. The 10-year JGB yield was last down 7.5 bps at 2.710%.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0659 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in early trade, with the 10-year German Bund yield hitting an eight-week high of 3.114%, up around 4 basis points on the day, according to Tradeweb. The rise in yields is driven by a sharp increase in oil prices due to elevated tensions between the U.S. and Iran and concerns that the Strait of Hormuz looks unlikely to return to normal. "Rising tensions in the Middle East are dominating markets," Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Eurozone bond markets will also take clues from U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT, as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Congress testimony. Both could shape the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate path. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0643 GMT - The dollar trades steady as investors await U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress. The data at 1230 GMT and Warsh's testimony at 1400 GMT will be key for shaping monetary policy expectations, Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Warsh will probably try to sound credible and stress that the Fed will respond to incoming data and inflation risks, he says. It's too soon for the recent rise in oil prices to feed meaningfully into inflation data, he says. "We are sticking with our view that we do not see any [rate] hike from the Fed this year." The DXY dollar index trades flat at 101.222.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0608 GMT - Deutsche Bank strategists remain bearish on U.S. bond duration given their view that the ongoing rise in the free float of G-4 government debt--from U.S., U.K., Eurozone, Japan-- will increase term premia, they say in a note. They forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to reach 4.80% by the end of the year, with the two-year yield at 4.30%, "implying modest steepening from current spot and forward levels." The 10-year Treasury yield last trades 0.7 basis points higher at 4.616%, while the two-year Treasury yield is up 1.9 basis points at 4.279%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0601 GMT - Foreign investors sold a record $32.37 billion of South Korean securities, data released Tuesday by the Bank of Korea showed. The amount was the largest since the central bank began compiling the data. "Sentiment may have been dampened by heightened caution over AI investment, while recent gains in the domestic stock market led to portfolio rebalancing," the BOK said. Bonds recorded net inflows of $1.65 billion, likely supported by South Korea's increased weighting in the World Government Bond Index, BOK added. (jihye.lee@wsj.com)

0556 GMT - U.S. CPI data followed by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's testimony look set to shape Fed expectations through summer, Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. "Volatility seems guaranteed after [Fed Governor] Waller highlighted the importance of the data and the market is pricing about a 50/50 chance for a hike this month," the head of rates and credit research says. Core CPI is expected to stay at 2.9% in June, same as in May, while the headline inflation is expected to have decelerated to 3.8% from 4.2% previously, according to The Wall Street Journal's poll of analysts. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0547 GMT - J.P. Morgan strategists recommend investors unwind 10- to 30-year U.S. Treasury flattener positions ahead of event risks--CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's inaugural testimony in front of Congress. "Front-end Treasury yields rose 6 basis points and the curve flattened by 3 basis points following further escalation in geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed commentary," the strategists say. Fed governor Christopher Waller laid out his concerns that recent elevated inflation could become imbedded in expectations. Waller said if the CPI release continues to show core inflationary pressures, the Fed would "need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0544 GMT - Traders should watch for whether diplomacy could bring a solution to the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz, to determine whether the conflict ends or smolders, Macquarie Group's ​Thierry Wizman says in a note. "So far, of course, that hasn't happened; the recurrence of the kinetic attacks that began last week continued over the weekend," the global foreign-exchange and rates strategist says. The escalation of the fight and the prospect that traffic through the strait will be completely blocked again (from both sides) remain the principal risks to global growth through their effect on supply constraints, reflected in oil prices, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2026 03:33 ET (07:33 GMT)

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