The U.S. is imposing 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian goods next Wednesday, just two days before a temporary, global 10% duty is set to expire.

The Brazil tariffs, which exclude items like high-quality beef cuts, coffee, and yellowfin tuna, were imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and follow a yearlong investigation into what officials described as Brazil's unfair trade practices.

The U.S. trade representative's office announced the move late Wednesday. The Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping global levies in February; shortly after, Trump imposed the temporary tariff, which is scheduled to end next Friday.

"Extensive negotiations with Brazil over the past year have not resolved these issues," U.S. Trade Representative said in a statement.

Trade experts see more tariffs as early as Friday -- 10% to 12.5% on 60 countries that are tied a Section 301 investigation on forced labor.

Another Section 301 investigation, related to excess capacity, targets 16 economies. The Trump administration has said it wants to rebuild the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court through these investigations.

Ryan Majerus, a former trade representative official and partner at King & Spalding, expects the Brazil tariffs to be tacked on to the levies related to the forced labor investigation. That would put Brazil at a 35% tariff rate for many items.

The U.S. allowed "extremely limited" additions to items that would be exempted from the duties after a comment period, Majerus said.

"I don't think the war or affordability concerns is going to keep them from putting on tariffs," Majerus said, noting the few exemptions. "Their view is that no one thought they could socialize 15% to 20% duty rates and the market is fine. They will keep rolling the ball forward until it isn't."

Investors have debated whether the U.S. would push tariffs back toward levels before the Supreme Court ruling or leave them at slightly lower levels because of inflation worries.

Another question: Will the tariff rates in negotiated trade pacts be the highest that they go? Stacking tariffs on top of those coming out of the investigations would push some levels beyond that higher end.

"I think they will use Section 301 as an enforcement mechanism to the agreements," Majerus added. "For example, for the European Union, the rate in the trade pact could act as a cap, but in a month if the president isn't happy with the implementation it could go up."

That could result in almost as messy a situation as last spring's tariff uncertainty that worried investors, he added.

More trade friction will probably ensure. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hit back at the duties in an X post, warning it would take steps to retaliate with countermeasures.

"July 15, 2026, will go down in the history of relations between Brazil and the U.S. as a lamentable milestone," Lula wrote, noting that the U.S. has accumulated a $424.5 billion trade surplus in goods and services with Brazil over the past 15 years.

The tariffs could sour relations between the countries ahead of Brazil's presidential election. Trump had threatened 50% tariffs on Brazil last year, citing its digital laws and treatment of Trump ally and former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Though the tariffs could hurt investor sentiment, for now, XP chief strategist Fernando Ferreira sees limited impact on Brazilian stocks given key products like oil, steel, aircraft parts, and beef are exempted from these levies.

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com and George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com

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July 16, 2026 12:03 ET (16:03 GMT)

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