Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1016 ET - President Trump is threatening to impose a 50% tariff starting on Aug. 19 on roughly $20 billion in Canadian exports, citing Canada's discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made automobiles, dairy product and alcohol. The Washington-based Distilled Spirits Council offers a lukewarm response to the tariff news. "We appreciate the administration's recognition of the significant damage" done to U.S. distillers, says council CEO, Chris Swonger. Nearly all Canadian provinces have banned the sale of U.S. spirits and wines at their government-run liquor outlets. "We had hoped, however, this issue could be resolved without further escalation," Swonger says, warning the 50% tariff could trigger new retaliation from Ottawa that threatens to further harm America's hospitality sector. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1008 ET - BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic estimates that President Trump's proposed new 50% levy on some Canadian goods to address discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made autos, alcohol and dairy products likely lifts the average effective tariff on Canadian exports to America to around 7.5%, from its current 5% level. On aggregate, Kavcic says that sounds digestible, although warns "some specific businesses and sectors industries would be hit extremely hard." He adds the latest Trump threat, which could be enacted on Aug. 19, is likely to weigh on business confidence, and serves as a reminder "that uncertainty on the trade front has not gone away." He says deteriorating trade ties between Ottawa and Washington "could even open the door" to fresh rate cuts. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)

0940 ET - General Motors is investing up to $1.5 billion this year to onshore production to the U.S. and expand its software capabilities, CFO Paul Jacobson says on a call with analysts. GM's stepped up domestic manufacturing efforts will bring its U.S. production capacity to more than 2 million units next year, as well as further reduce the company's tariff exposure, CEO Mary Barra says. "At the same time, our high-margin software and services revenues continue to grow rapidly, with 1 million new subscriptions expected this year, contributing to more than $3 billion in recognized revenue next year," she adds. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0923 ET - President Trump's new tariffs on Canada would boost the overall U.S. tariff rate by just 0.3 percentage points, according to a note from Capital Economics. Although, they will have a more meaningful impact on the tariff burden that Canadian exporters face, they add. "This specific tariff on Canada will not have any major implications for US GDP growth or inflation but, at the margin at least, this move may heighten concern among the FOMC that there are still more tariff-related cost pressures to come," the note says. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0919 ET - Grain markets are assessing what the new round of tariffs announced by President Trump may mean for U.S. agriculture. The tariffs are not scheduled to begin until next month, but included in this round is dairy products from Canada -- with claims that Canada's trade policies are discriminatory. CBOT grains haven't reacted much to these tariffs specifically, although the timing of them comes as the U.S. and Mexico enter discussions surrounding extending the USMCA. In a note, Chris Krueger of TD Cowen says that the next 30 days "leaves ample time to hammer out some type of face-saving retaliation unwind -- perhaps during the USMCA negotiations." CBOT corn is down 0.7% pre-market, while soybeans fall 0.3% and wheat is down 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0831 ET - Polling from Ottawa-based Abacus Data suggest that a majority of Canadians aren't keen on PM Mark Carney making quick concessions to secure a trade detente with Washington. In results published Tuesday, or hours after President Trump threatened to slap a new 50% tariff on a swath of Canadian goods, Abacus says 69% of Canadians want Carney to hold firm in trade talks regarding USMCA, "even if it means living with uncertainty for longer." Abacus adds respondents indicate that reducing Canada's trading dependence on the U.S. should remain a long-term policy priority. The White House says the new 50% tariff is in response to discriminatory Canadian treatment of U.S.-made automobiles, spirits and wine, and dairy products. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0726 ET - Copper prices rise more than 1.5%, supported by tightening supply conditions in China. Demand for refined copper strengthened after scrap shortages pushed China's Yangshan import premium to its highest level in more than a year, reflecting increased appetite for imported metal, according to ING analysts. Supply has also been constrained by maintenance at several Chinese smelters and with Beijing's copper inventories near the lower end of their seasonal range. Meanwhile, as more metal gets drawn into the Chinese market, stocks on the London Metal Exchange have fallen. Expectations of potential U.S. tariffs have provided additional price support, according to ING. Still, uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook could limit further gains in the near term. LME copper futures are up 1.5% at $13,854.50 a metric ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0518 ET - Tech could remain the main theme for equity markets in 2H after seeing short-term volatility, says Lei Meng, China equity strategist at UBS Securities. Global capital markets have recorded sharp volatility recently, with pullbacks for major Chinese and global indices and rising implied volatility, Meng notes. However, the tech sector should retain robust earnings growth amid rapid global AI advances, as well as China's strong policy support, the strategist says. "Incremental net inflows to the tech sector from sector/thematic ETFs, actively managed tech tracking mutual funds, margin financing and hedge funds should continue," Meng says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0445 ET - The Canadian dollar's limited reaction to President Trump imposing new tariffs on Canada appears justified for now, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. "Given the multitude of threats Trump has made in recent months--not all of which have been carried out--the muted reaction seems reasonable for now." However, trade tensions will dominate news surrounding the Canadian dollar in coming weeks and the 50% tariff on a wide range of goods is likely to weigh on Canadian exports, he says. The U.S. dollar trades flat at 1.4065 Canadian dollars, having reached a one-week high of 1.4085 overnight, according to LSEG. The Canadian dollar's modest falls earlier could also reflect lower-than-expected June inflation data, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0144 ET - U.S. Treasury yields edge lower in line as oil prices decline slightly even as the Middle East conflict does not abate. Following the collapse of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding for peace, "the conflict now largely revolves around control of the Strait of Hormuz," SEB's Maya Westerlund says in a note. However, the risk is a more prolonged stalemate, with continued uncertain energy flows, higher oil prices and recurring attacks, she says. The two-year Treasury yield falls 1.3 bps to 4.200%, while the 10-year yield declines 0.6 bps to 4.591%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

2205 ET - The Trump administration's announcement of an additional 50% duty on Canada, following the announcement of a levy on Brazil, could be a way to rebuild its tariff regime. Capital Economics' Stephen Brown notes the administration is resorting to a new method that cites Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act. That may be an attempt to see if Section 338--which some commentators suggest was superseded by subsequent legislation--could be used to impose duties on other countries in the future, the economist says. If so, that could help the administration regain some of the flexibility it lost when the Supreme Court struck down prior tariffs, though Brown notes considerable uncertainty about whether it will follow through with new duties and if those will be upheld by the courts. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

1813 ET - The Canadian dollar weakened after President Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on a broad range of goods. The escalation in trade tension "threatens to damage the Canadian economy and add to the strain of an already vulnerable currency," says Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at forex firm Corpay. The 50% duty, he says, will apply regardless of whether they were previously exempted under USMCA's terms--removing a key protection for Canadian exporters. There are carve outs, such as energy, which Schamotta says should limit the macroeconomic blow. Along with the tariffs, the White House unveiled a series of measures aimed at building up aluminum-smelting capacity in the US, which Schamotta warns could hit Canada hard. Canada is America's top foreign supplier of the metal. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 21, 2026 10:16 ET (14:16 GMT)

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