Meta Platforms is coming for Shopify, if investors are to believe Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Dominic Ball.

Ball downgraded Shopify to Neutral from Buy on Tuesday, reducing his price target on the stock to $130 from $160, because he views the Facebook parent and its artificial-intelligence aspirations as an existential threat to the e-commerce platform.

Shopify stock declined 0.9% to $123.37 on Tuesday. Shares have declined 23% this year.

"With a heavy heart, we downgrade Shopify to Neutral. It has been one of our highest conviction internet names thanks to its forward-thinking management team, impressive founder-led culture, leading product and wide moat in a non-AI world," Ball wrote.

"The downgrade is predominantly due to the Meta threat," the analyst added.

The firm believes Meta will soon pivot from a consumer AI assistant and release a "one-prompt entrepreneur" small business AI tool that builds the e-commerce storefront, creates and runs advertisements, handles payments, catalogs customer relationship management.

This will directly hit Shopify's core business, according to the analyst.

Ball forecasts that 50% of Shopify's U.S. volumes are exposed to this type of business expansion by Meta.

"We had long argued that Shopify deserved a premium multiple for its long duration of growth," Ball wrote. "However, with this new Meta AI threat, our view now flips."

"We no longer think the premium is warranted and argue for a derating," he added.

Shopify didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Barron's.

Rothschild & Co's view on Shopify isn't universally held on Wall Street. Of the 54 firms polled by FactSet, Shopify has an average Overweight rating with a $148.52 price target.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Wood on Tuesday also assumed coverage of Shopify with an Overweight rating and a $192 price target. Wood noted that Shopify "owns an enviable position as a mission critical provider of e-commerce solutions for companies."

Investors will have just to wait and see who's right.

Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com

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July 21, 2026 12:36 ET (16:36 GMT)

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