ECB Rate Hike Pricing Seen Providing Cushion to German Bonds Against Rising Oil Prices

Dow Jones
07/28

1124 GMT - Market pricing of around 1.5 interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year might be excessive, providing some cushion to German government bonds in case of renewed oil price rises, Metzler analysts say in a note. One-and-a-half rate raises would mean interest rates would rise by 37 basis points, according to LSEG. Metzler expects fewer interest-rate hikes than that. "We see support for the entire curve stemming from monetary policy with the greatest impact, naturally, at the short end," analysts Leon Ferdinand Bost and Yannik Mosbach say. Short-term yields have somewhat decoupled from the oil price and consequently Metzler sees a certain "margin of safety" against rising Brent prices, they say. The ECB raised interest rates in June and left them on hold in July.

 

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