The commercial aerospace business has been turbulent this year, with the Iran war driving up oil prices, disrupting global air travel.

Boeing stock is down about 8% since the war started in late February, but it has been working to turn around operations. One sign of progress: It is expected to deliver about 670 planes in 2026, up from 600 in 2025.

The commercial jet maker is slated to report second-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning. Wall Street is looking for an operating profit of $459 million from sales of $24.2 billion. A year ago, Boeing reported an operating loss of $176 million from sales of $22.7 billion.

Boeing delivered 171 jets in the second quarter, up from 150 a year ago. Defense profits should be improved, too. Boeing reported a first-quarter 2026 defense operating profit of $233 million. That segment generated a $128 million operating loss for all of 2025.

Free cash flow is expected to be positive. That's a good thing, but what Boeing says about free cash flow for the year matters more than quarter-to-quarter fluctuations. Management currently expects $1 billion to $3 billion in positive free cash flow.

There will be lots to discuss, beyond current results.

Boeing is coming from the biennial Farnborough Air Show, where industry executives meet to discuss trends and order jets. Boeing updated its commercial market outlook, which projects some 44,000 jet deliveries over the coming 20 years as the global fleet of commercial aircraft grows to about 50,000 planes, up from roughly 28,000 jets today.

And Boeing collected more than 170 new orders at the show, which beat Airbus, but isn't anything to write home about.

Order rates just aren't a concern now, though. They haven't been the primary driver of Boeing stock for a while. The company has an undelivered backlog of more than 6,800 jets. It needs to make more planes to generate more cash flow.

Free cash flow is expected to be almost $3 billion this year, a $4 billion or $5 billion improvement versus 2025. By 2028, Boeing is expected to deliver more than 850 planes and generate more than $10 billion in free cash flow.

Of course, investors want to see solid operating metrics, but anything that gives investors confidence in the production outlook should be good for the stock after earnings. Comments about 737 MAX production, certifying the longer version of the MAX, the 737 MAX 10, certifying the huge 777X plane, and supplier performance are things to watch for.

Coming into the week, Boeing stock was down about 4% year to date, but that was mainly due to the war. Shares were down 8% since the fighting broke out in Iran.

The conflict pushed up oil prices, which can impact demand for air travel. Jet fuel is a big expense for airlines.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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July 27, 2026 16:06 ET (20:06 GMT)

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