The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1122 ET - What this week's meeting of the Federal Reserve will mean for financial markets will likely set the stage for the next leg of bitcoin trading, says Bitfinex in a note. The firm says that how prices move if bitcoin comes up against a resistance of $68,000 to $68,500 will be critical for setting the tone. "Clear it, and the volume structure opens an air pocket toward $84,000," says Bitfinex. "Fail, and the $53,200 realised price comes back into view."Wednesday's decision from the Federal Reserve on interest rates is seen as the catalyst for either of these two sides to play out, says Bitfinex. Bitcoin is little changed at $64,634, while ethereum rises 1% to $1,932 and XRP falls 1% to $1.09. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1100 ET - Bitcoin is down 0.2% to $64,496, and a further slide could be in the cards, says Nicolai Søndergaard of Nansen in a note--to as low as $52k to $58k. "Onchain and derivatives signals show that strong buyers have not yet returned or confirmed a durable bottom," says Søndergaard. The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates later this week and commentary around it may set the tone for how bitcoin moves in the near future, he adds--along with Strategy's 2Q results also slated for this week. Should bitcoin fall to $52k, it would be the lowest it has traded since February 2024. Ethereum is up 0.5% to $1,922, XRP is down 1.3% to $1.09, and solana is flat around $75.28. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1056 ET - Oil markets were better prepared to absorb the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz than after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a European Central Bank blog. This explains the relatively muted oil-price increases despite more severe supply disruption, it says. At the start of the Iran war, the oil market ran a supply surplus of around 2.5 million barrels per day, underpinned by record U.S. shale output and China's shift to electric vehicles, the authors say. Before the Ukraine invasion, oil markets had a supply deficit of around 1 million barrels per day. Inventories were also higher than 2022, while there has been weaker demand, particularly from Asia, the blog says. Finally, the IEA's oil release of 400 million barrels far exceeds the 182 million released in 2022. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1049 ET - Elevated sovereign bond yields have driven up corporate bond yields, Deutsche Bank Research credit strategists say in a note. The average U.S. dollar corporate bond yield has risen by 76 basis points over the past six months, while the average euro-denominated corporate bond yield has risen 64bps during that period, the strategists say. U.S. and eurozone sovereign bond yields are relatively high due to concerns about inflation risks stemming from elevated energy prices as a result of conflict in the Middle East. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1028 ET - The euro could rise slightly later this year if the European Central Bank raises interest rates while the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged, strategists at UniCredit's The Investment Institute say in a note. "Our baseline scenario, which still points to a reduction of the war-driven risk premium, another rate hike by the ECB in September versus a Fed still on hold remains in favor of a modest euro-dollar rebound." However, any euro gains are likely to be capped at $1.17, they say. The euro is last marginally higher on the day at $1.1372. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1019 ET - The Federal Reserve's decision Wednesday might not give the dollar a fresh catalyst to rise unless it unexpectedly raises interest rates, HSBC's Paul Mackel says in a note. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has acknowledged inflation is above target and sounded a commitment to price stability. If Wednesday's meeting only matches these views, the dollar is unlikely to rise much given markets are already positioned for rate rises later this year, he says. "However, we are also cognisant of some toying with the idea of the Fed hiking surprisingly, just like it did suddenly in February 1994." This would boost the dollar if markets welcomed it as a prudent step, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.419. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1003 ET - Yields on U.K. 2-year government bonds, or gilts, drop to a 10-day low as investors reduce their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in 2026. Markets have scaled back rate-hike expectations after the U.S. and Iran paused attacks, raising hopes of a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict. The price of Brent crude falls 6.5% to $90.54 a barrel. Markets price in a total of 38 basis points of BOE rate rises this year, down from 47 basis points priced on Friday, LSEG data show. Two-year gilt yields fall 4.7bps to last trade at 4.3795%, having hit a low of 4.3464% earlier in the session, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0941 ET - The Swedish krona could strengthen modestly towards year-end if the prospect of the Riksbank raising interest rates increases, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Tax cuts for workers, pensioners and corporates along with lower value-added tax on food is currently suppressing inflation but this impact will disappear next year and potentially add pressure on the Riksbank to increase rates, she says. "To promote the perceived risk of Riksbank policy tightening further and to fuel upside potential for the krona, both growth and inflation data for Sweden will likely have to print on the firmer side of market expectations in the coming months." The euro rises 0.1% to 11.0510 krona. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0938 ET - The solid 0.9% gain in nondefense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft is consistent with the baseline forecast for business equipment investment to continue supporting growth in the second half of the year, according to a note from Oxford Economics. "The AI infrastructure buildout is showing no signs of slowing, which is driving up new orders of computers and electronic products and spilling over into other sectors such as machinery--namely, power transmission equipment--and metals," Oxford says.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0905 ET - Global mergers and acquisitions have been rising, tracking toward the highest volumes on record, Morgan Stanley credit strategists say in a note. M&A activity has been strong in the U.S. and similar transactions are picking up in Europe supported by "a softening stance on consolidation from the European Commission, high fragmentation and solid balance sheets," the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0859 ET - Treasury yields drop from recent highs as Fed week starts with a pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices fall sharply while the WSJ Dollar Index slips less than 0.1%. June durable goods orders rise 0.3%, missing WSJ consensus of a 2.1% increase. The Fed is expected to remain on hold Wednesday, but uncertainty is higher than usual. Futures markets price 34% odds of a rate increase, according to CME. The 10-year yield is at 4.647%, down from Friday's 4.678% settle. The two-year drops to 4.320% from 4.328%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0841 ET - Sterling falls to a three-week low against the euro as U.K. fiscal concerns weigh. New Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government has announced tax cuts to electricity bills and business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues along with a cap on bus fares. "We are beginning to see a few jitters among investors as the tax cuts unveiled so far both appear unfunded and raise the risk of tax hikes and additional borrowing down the road," Ebury economist Enrique Diaz-Alvarez says in a note. The euro rises to as high as 0.8559 pounds. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3383. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 27, 2026 11:22 ET (15:22 GMT)

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