Just over a month since its initial public offering, SpaceX has delivered one of the weakest post-debut performances of any major U.S. listing since the end of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

A Barron's analysis found that the stock performed worse than 90% of other U.S. IPOs with market capitalizations of $1 billion or more since July, 2009.

Over the first 27 trading days, SpaceX was down 23% from its first day closing price of $161. Across 955 public offerings, the typical IPO returned 0.8% over the equivalent period.

Poor IPO performance doesn't determine a company's long-term trajectory. Meta Platforms rewarded investors after a rocky debut and weakness in the stock as the lockup period expired.

SpaceX faces a similar challenge. Shares held by founder Elon Musk are locked up until June 2027. Altogether, about 60% of the company's 13 billion in shares outstanding will then be eligible for sale. Other investors face shorter lockup periods.

Major lockup expirations have often weighed on demand for momentum stocks in the weeks around the event. One mitigating factor: SpaceX's inclusion in major stock indexes will trigger substantial buying from index-tracking investors, helping offset selling pressure.

SpaceX has already joined the Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 indexes. It could join the S&P 500 after trading publicly for at least a year and meeting the index's profitability requirements.

Write to Elijah Nicholson-Messmer at elijah.nicholson-messmer@barrons.com

Last Week

Markets

A Tuesday stock rally came to a halt by Thursday, when oil hit $100 a barrel after Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level in more than a year on inflation fears. Tech shares were dumped, with the Magnificent Seven stocks losing $889.3 billion in market value that day. Stocks were mixed on Friday. On the week, the Dow industrials fell 0.38%, their third straight week of declines, the S&P 500 lost 0.61%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed 2.13% lower.

Companies

Alphabet's earnings beat estimates, but its forecast for higher artificial-intelligence spending sunk the stock. Alphabet's Google was fined $1 billion by the European Union for illegally undercutting competition with its dominant search engine. Chip maker Intel reported earnings nearly double analyst estimates, thanks to strong AI demand.

Deals

Penske Corp. and Japanese investment firm Mitsui proposed to buy out Penske Automotive Group in a deal that could be worth $3.78 billion, offering $210 a share to take the auto dealership chain private...The U.S. approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia to provide the country with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the kingdom's territory...Potato chip and salty-snack maker Utz Brands is going private in a merger with Germany's Intersnack Group, at an enterprise value of about $2.9 billion.

Next Week

Tuesday 7/28

Roughly 160 S&P 500 index companies release results this week, including four of the Magnificent Seven. Boeing, Coca-Cola, and Visa announce earnings on Tuesday, followed by Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, and Starbucks on Wednesday. Amazon.com, Apple, and Mastercard report quarterly results on Thursday, while AbbVie, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil close out the week on Friday.

Wednesday 7/29

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. There's roughly a one in three chance that the FOMC will raise the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%-4.00%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Softer-than-expected inflation readings for June have given the central bank some breathing room, but Wall Street sees it as temporary, with the consensus view for a interest-rate hike by September.

Thursday 7/30

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the personal consumption expenditures price index for June. Economists forecast a 3.7% year-over-year increase, four-tenths of a percentage point less than in May. The core PCE is expected to rise 3.3%, compared with 3.4% in May.

The Numbers

$750 B

OpenAI's latest projected spending on computing power through 2030, up from an earlier $600 billion.

29

Number of days this year that the 30-year Treasury bond has traded above 5%, the most since 2007.

1,000+

Number of Americans with at least $25 million in their IRAs in 2024, more than double the number in 2019.

7.3%

One-year decline in the median listing price for single-family homes in wildfire-scarred Malibu, Calif.

Write to editors@barrons.com

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July 24, 2026 18:44 ET (22:44 GMT)

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