Ford's Pricing, Product Mix To Drive H2 2026: Analyst

Benzinga Earnings
07/30

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) shares are trading higher after the company reported strong second-quarter adjusted EPS results and raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance on Tuesday.

Earnings Snapshot

The company reported second-quarter revenue of $44.89 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $45.81 billion, according to Benzinga Pro.

The Detroit-based automaker reported adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share, beating estimates of 35 cents per share.

Ford expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $11 billion, up from prior guidance of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. The company anticipates full-year adjusted free cash flow of $6 billion to $7 billion, up from prior guidance of $5 billion to $6 billion.

Analyst View

B of A Securities analyst Alexander Perry revised estimates following the mixed quarterly earnings.

The analyst raised EPS estimates to $1.85 from $1.69 for FY26, while trimming the same to $1.85 from $1.96 for FY27 and $1.99 from $2.20 for FY28.

The analyst expects strong pricing and favorable trim mix to remain key drivers through the second half of 2026, with continued momentum in off-road vehicles and pent-up demand for F-Series trucks, which currently have approximately 45 days of inventory supply.

For the second half of 2026, Perry projects commodity headwinds to increase from $500 million in the first half to approximately $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion, with a relatively balanced impact across the third and fourth quarters.

Additionally, the analyst also sees around $1 billion of incremental UEV and expects Ford Energy investments to occur primarily in the second half, with the majority weighted toward the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Perry expects Novelis to become a tailwind in the second half, with approximately $1 billion of EBIT improvement expected to be realized mainly during this period.

However, the anticipated volume recovery benefit has been lowered toward the bottom end of the $2.5 billion-$3.0 billion range due to expectations of a less favorable mix, as Ford is likely to increase shipments through lower-margin channels, adds the analyst.

F Price Action: Ford Motor shares were up 4.45% at $15.62 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Read Also: Ford CEO Jim Farley Backs USMCA Overhaul, Says Deal Is 'Critical' to Compete With Japan, South Korea

Photo via Shutterstock 

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