Exxon Delivers Best Earnings in Years. Why It's not Enough for a Stock Boost.

Dow Jones
07/31

ExxonMobil shares fell early Friday after the oil company reported second-quarter earnings narrowly short of Wall Street's forecasts.

The oil giant reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $3.52 per share, up from $1.64 a year ago. Total revenue came to $116.02 billion, up from $81.51 billion for the same period a year earlier.

Analysts had expected Exxon to post earnings of $3.56 a share on sales of $109.9 billion.

Exxon shares were down 2.5% in premarket trading. The company may be the victim of high expectations, with the stock having risen 30% this year so far through Thursday's close, riding a windfall from higher oil prices driven mostly by the Iran war.

The stock hit a record high in March and has fluctuated since with developments in the war. Shares have recently rebounded, but some analysts have begun to doubt how long the rally can last.

As expected, Exxon's earnings and revenue were its highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent commodity prices soaring in 2022.

Exxon reported free cash flow for the quarter of $17.2 billion, more than it made in the past three quarters combined. Analysts had expected Exxon to bring in almost $16 billion in free cash flow.

"The second quarter was shaped by disruption, but defined by execution," said CEO Darren Woods in a statement. "Markets were supportive, but our performance reflected the strength of the portfolio and operating model we have built over many years."

Investors will be watching closely to see how Exxon deploys that cash -- buybacks, dividend hikes, and acquisitions are all possible, though Wall Street tends to favor the first two more than the third.

Last week, Bank of America analyst Jean Ann Salisbury downgraded Exxon to Neutral from Buy because she expects the stock to lose momentum as the Iran war moves toward a resolution, even if that timing remains uncertain.

Exxon has also been forced to shut in some of its Middle East production, and it remains unclear when production will resume.

There's "limited potential upside given the 20% of currently shut-in volume in the Middle East and unclear forward path in Qatar," she wrote. Salisbury, however, raised her price target to $158, versus the current price of about $155.

Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins also argues that Exxon continues to reassure investors that it will stick to its capital spending plans rather than using its windfall to pursue speculative acquisitions. That said, he thinks the company's valuation already reflects its advantages, which is why he rates the stock at Market Perform.

 

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