Retail investor behavior, for one, has seen a shift
One of the "most technically challenging" trading setups Citadel has seen in years is finally easing up, says strategist Scott Rubner.
"Happy days are here again, the skies above are clear again," is how that chipper Flapper-era song goes, and Citadel Securities appears to be singing it with a bullish call for stocks on Tuesday.
While some are wary that markets are ready to move ahead, our call of the day comes from Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity-derivatives strategy, who is optimistic. "The technical reset we have been waiting for has largely occurred. July did not change the structural bull market. It reset it."
A month ago, he said, they were arguing that "markets needed a meaningful technical reset" before they could again get constructive on U.S. stocks.
What has happened since? "Retail investors have meaningfully reduced risk, leverage has normalized, funding conditions have improved, market concentration has declined, and many of the technical excesses that defined early summer have been unwound," the strategist explained in a note to clients.
"Importantly, the reset occurred through rotation, deleveraging, and stronger fundamentals, not through a deterioration in the macroeconomic backdrop," he added.
That's also as earnings continue to surprise on the upside, valuations are getting more attractive and corporate-buyback demand is set to pick up as blackout windows expire, Rubner added.
"For the first time in several months, we believe investors can spend less time focused on positioning and more time focused on fundamentals. Markets are transitioning from a flow-driven environment back to one increasingly dictated by earnings, corporate demand and the macroeconomic backdrop."
He said Thursday's bounce saw retail investors sell more in response, which is more in line with their normal behavior: buy the dip, then sell the rally.
Rubner added that leveraged exchange-traded-fund assets have declined more than $60 billion from a June peak, "removing one of the largest sources of incremental leverage that had fueled the first-half rally." Technology-leveraged exchange-traded fund assets are down 40% and chip assets down 55%.
The collective $1.5 trillion wipeout in semiconductor market capitalization has taken the industry's weight in the S&P 500 SPX to 16% from nearly 20%. "Broad indexes did an excellent job to mask material volatility under the hood, with the average stock near records," he said.
Rubner flagged more signs of a normalizing market. Hedging has been unusually pricey for individual stocks and sectors, but cheap for the overall market. That odd gap between single-stock and benchmark volatility finally righted itself during a recent broad-based selloff, he said.
As for fundamentals being back in the driver's seat, the strategist pointed out that consensus expectations for second-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth stand at 45% - from 22.4% at the start of the reporting season - making it one of the strongest earnings seasons outside of major recoveries from recessions.
In short: "We remain constructive on the medium-term outlook because the structural pillars of this bull market, including record retail participation, passive ownership, and corporate demand for equities, remain firmly intact," said Rubner.
The markets
Stocks DJIA COMP SPX are surging at the start of trading as Iran peace-deal hopes rise.
Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 7,600.5 2.53% 0.84% 11.03% 20.07% Nasdaq composite 25,913.90 3.94% -0.79% 11.50% 23.09% 10-year Treasury 4.71 9.90 15.40 53.80 49.20 Gold 4,103.3 1.85% -0.32% -5.28% 19.45% Oil 81.59 3.11% 13.01% 42.12% 25.20% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points
The buzz
Oil prices (CL.1) (BRN00) have moved sharply lower after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that there could be an Iran deal Tuesday or Wednesday and a Qatar official also spoke of a possible short-term agreement.
Palantir (PLTR) reported forecast-beating earnings and revenue driven by artificial-intelligence growth. Shares are now rising.
Caterpillar stock $(CAT)$ is climbing after the heavy-machinery maker reporting a higher profit as sales jumped thanks in part to a booming data-center buildouts. McDonald's $(MCD)$ reported mixed results and shares are up modestly.
Earnings from SpaceX $(SPCX)$ (follow our Live Blog here) and Advanced Micro Devices $(AMD)$ (follow here) are due after the close.
The U.S. trade deficit for June came in at a higher-than-expected $73.3 billion. Factory orders and job openings for June are coming at 10 a.m.
The AI boom is transforming the American economy beyond recognition.
The chart
Data released Monday showed a 0.1% fall in construction spending for June, but Bespoke Investment Group pointed out "notable upward revisions" for data-center spending. Elsewhere, spending is weak on general office, warehouse and tech manufacturing, Bespoke said in a note to clients.
Top tickers
These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:
Ticker Security name PLTR Palantir NVDA Nvidia SPCX SpaceX TSLA Tesla MU Micron MSFT Microsoft AMD Advanced Micro Devices GME GameStop TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing AAPL Apple
Backyard spa proves too tempting for this bear.
-Barbara Kollmeyer