Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/04

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1119 ET - Live cattle futures are up 0.8% to start both the week and month of August. Managed money funds maintained a sizable net long of cattle contracts, holding a net long of over 66,000 contracts, according to Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report. Climbing prices isn't abnormal for cattle at this time of year, says AgResource in a note. "Seasonally, cash cattle and beef prices tend to firm into late-August"' says the firm. But following Labor Day, this support is expected to quickly subside. Lean hog futures are down 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1007 ET - Ipsen's biggest drug could soon face competition from Sweden's Camurus, Jefferies analysts say. Investors in the French drugmaker have mainly focused on the risk from generic drugs entering the market and eroding sales of Ipsen's cancer treatment Somatuline, its top-selling product, but the greater long-term risk could come from Camurus's experimental medicine CAM2029, according to Jefferies. Results from a late-stage study of CAM2029 for the treatment of neuroendocrine tumors are due in late 2026 or early 2027 and there is a reasonable likelihood they will be superior to Somatuline's, the analysts say. Given that Somatuline accounts for roughly 30% of Ipsen's sales and is highly profitable, this could put pressure on the company's earnings, they add. Jefferies cuts its recommendation on Ipsen to underperform from hold. Shares fall 8.2% to 153.50 euros. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0954 ET - The USDA announces a new flash sale of soybean exports to China, with 488,000 metric tons sold for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. An additional 136,150 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery, the destination potentially being "China" although that's not necessarily the case. The notice comes after media reports emerged Friday claiming that Chinese buyers had gone to U.S. sellers to lock in soybean cargoes. CBOT soybean futures are down 0.5% in early trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0940 ET - U.S. natural gas futures edge up in early trading with above normal temperatures likely to support power-sector demand into next week. Next week "may prove the last best chance for national cooling demand this summer before underlying normals begin to wane seasonally into late August," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Commitment of traders data for the week ended July 28 showed an increase in speculator short positions. "The build-up to-date has yet to result in a substantial short-covering event," and while risks are increasing "there are few obvious near-term bullish catalysts on the horizon," Rubin adds. Nymex natural gas is up 0.8% at $2.769/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0921 ET - CBOT grains are mostly lower premarket, with most-active corn futures down 0.5% and soybeans sliding 0.7%. Grains are taking a cue from the big dip seen in crude oil prices--down 6.7% to below $80 a barrel. "The focus remains on the war fronts and mostly on a more optimistic outlook for the Strait and Iran, with negotiations at least scheduled for this afternoon," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Grains and oil are connected via grain usage as a feedstock for renewable fuels. Wheat is higher premarket, with that most-active contract up 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0901 ET - Oil futures are sharply lower after the U.S. suspended planned strikes on Iran in favor of resuming talks. President Trump said at the weekend that "the perimeters of a deal" have been agreed to, including the total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has yet to confirm that talks with the U.S. are set to restart, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital notes. "The current geopolitical rhetoric is exerting downward pressure on oil prices, which is beneficial for other markets. Nevertheless, oil prices could quickly reverse if talks do not resume," he says. WTI is down 6.3% at $79.31 a barrel and Brent is 5.3% lower at $83.25.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0834 ET - Food inflation will be higher for longer as a result of climate-related supply shocks, lower investment and other factors, UBS analysts write. High welfare standards for livestock, as well as higher labor costs and fast-growing demand will also lift prices. Advances in agricultural technology might reduce costs and improve farm profitability, but would only modestly ease food prices. If food inflation persists, a greater proportion of customer wallets will go toward supermarkets, the analysts say. Such a development means food retailers might benefit from higher food prices, the analysts say. However, consumers might in turn spend less on eating out and on other discretionary, non-food consumer goods. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0635 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower, tracking rival soybean oil's sharp decline and expectations of continued selling interest amid new U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled for Monday, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a note. The planned talks have once again renewed traders' hopes for a potential agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease energy supply disruptions. However, palm-oil buying interest from India ahead of the festive season is helping cushion the price drop, the analysts add. Kenanga Futures sees support and resistance for the October futures contract at 4,550 ringgit a metric ton and 4,680 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery fell 14 ringgit to 4,629 ringgit a ton. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0353 ET - Gold prices edge higher after President Trump refrained from launching fresh attacks on Iran, sending oil prices lower and easing concerns about inflation and further interest-rate hikes. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.2% to $4,113.90 a troy ounce. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, tumbled to $83 a barrel as Trump told reporters Sunday that the U.S. would engage in talks with Iran beginning Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.1% to 99.79 after Japan and the U.S. confirmed joint intervention to shore up the yen, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0019 ET - Iron ore futures are lower in Asian trade, with the most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropping 2.4% to 701.0 yuan a metric ton. ANZ Research analysts see little prospect of reversing the structural decline in Chinese steel demand. They estimate that only targeted policy support focused on infrastructure and selective industrial measures can help the market. Against this backdrop, weak domestic consumption, still-elevated inventories, and rising physical supply could weigh on iron ore, they said in a note. Iron ore is a key input for steel production.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2239 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, weighed by last Friday's declines in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. Concerns over rising production and profit-taking could also weigh on market sentiment, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures remain in bearish momentum, and traders could stay cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's July supply and demand data release, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects prices to face resistance at 4,677 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,618 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is 19 ringgit lower at 4,624 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2119 ET - Copper rises in early Asian trade, with the three-month LME contract up 0.2% at $13,819.00 a metric ton. Copper prices are finding support as supply-side issues continue to tighten the market, ANZ Research analysts say in a report. "Chinese smelters are grappling with a shortage of copper concentrate and scrap copper, which has sent key spreads higher," ANZ adds.

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