Contact Energy (ASX:CEN, NZE:CEN) is forecast to report fiscal 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortisation and fair value adjustments (EBITDAF) of NZ$1.01 billion, after NZ$26 million of one-off Manawa integration costs, versus initial guidance of NZ$980 million normalized EBITDAF, according to a Tuesday note by Jarden.

The long-term structural electrification drivers remain intact, including rapid growth in data center and electric vehicle loads and continued progress on dairy-processing heat-load conversion projects.

Analysis supports an around NZ$10 to NZ$15 per megawatt-hour downward revision to its medium-term spot price forecasts, driven primarily by a slower near-term demand trajectory and near-record hydro storage. New Zealand's electricity demand, excluding the Tiwai Point smelter, is tracking 1.8% above 2025.

Hydro storage is nearly 1,000 gigawatt-hour above average, keeping near-term winter supply risks low.

The investment firm retained an overweight rating on Contact Energy with a price target of NZ$11.11 per share.