The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1208 ET - Farmer sentiment turned the corner in July, with the latest Ag Economy Barometer published by Purdue University and the CME Group showing an increase of 13 points from the prior month, to 126. Driving this improvement is an improved outlook among farmers for current economic conditions, as well as expectations for the future. Even so, some issues affecting farmers are still very much in play -- with 46% of respondents saying that high input costs remain their biggest financial obstacle. Supporting the uptick in farmer sentiment was improving crop futures on the CBOT, says Michael Langemeier of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "At the same time, producers continue to wrestle with high input costs and uncertainty about future crop and livestock prices," says Langemeier. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1206 ET - The further widening of Canada's merchandise-trade surplus in June suggests trade momentum continued to hold up at the end of 2Q, with monthly exports up 0.4% to a fresh record and imports rising more modestly, KPMG Canada's Daniel Hyun says. Nominal trade figures continue to be heavily influenced by volatility in commodity prices, though real volumes of energy and metals exports remain robust, the economist notes. And he adds the most tariff-exposed sectors held up well in June, with strong growth in motor vehicle and parts exports and in steel and iron products. Aluminum exports contracted, but this was a reversal of strong May exports to European countries. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1159 ET - McDonald's mascot Grimace is back and he's helping drive engagement with the fast-food chain in Europe. McDonald's says it reintroduced Grimace in Germany with a full menu of purple-themed offerings. The return of the giant purple taste bud brought significant social-media interaction, including 57 million views across social platforms, Chief Financial Ian Borden tells analysts on a call. Borden says the campaign reinforced an emotional connection with the brand and benefited top-line performance. Germany was a key driver of the 1.5% same-store sales growth internationally, which helped offset underperformance in the U.S. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

1148 ET - This week is expected to show more rainfall and cooler temperatures moving through the Plains into the eastern Corn Belt, giving grain traders little reason to calculate any further risk premium getting reflected by futures. "The general attitude is that last week's rains helped the crop, and the forecasts look benign," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. The USDA forecasts that cold fronts will move through the eastern Corn Belt this week, giving crops hit by dryness concerns reprieve and likely pressure grain futures across the board. Last month, dry conditions were seen across the board. CBOT corn is down 2.2%, while soybeans are down 1.5% and wheat down 2.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1132 ET - McDonald's says it had fewer visits from its most loyal customers during the second quarter due to campaign execution problems. The fast-food chain rolled out new meal deals at the start of the quarter due to slower-than-expected traffic, but consumer awareness levels about the deals were below the company's targets, executives tell analysts on a call. The U.S. business also pulled back on digital offers. Finally, McDonald's FIFA campaign alongside the World Cup in June was less effective than expected, contributing to about a third of traffic underperformance relative to expectations, executives say. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

1129 ET - McDonald's says its U.S. business slowed significantly after a solid start to the year. Same-store sales increased less than 1% in the second quarter, which was below management's expectations, Chief Executive Chris Kempczinski tells analysts on a call. He says that, while McDonald's has lowered prices and prioritized affordability with its menu, execution across different restaurants wasn't consistent. "We don't have a strategy problem. We simply didn't execute at the level we needed to in the second quarter," Kempczinski says. Shares rise 1.6%. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

1115 ET - Oil futures move further into the red after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says on CNBC that an agreement with Iran may be reached by Wednesday, and Qatari officials say progress has been made. "Bessent is what probably pushed prices down, but more recently catalyzed by Qatar confirming that," says Ajay Parmar of energy intelligence firm ICIS. The key thing Iran wants is some form of repayment to cover costs incurred during the war, and they will likely end up pushing for a toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. "From my perspective this is inevitable, because it will be a way out for the U.S.," Parmar says. "I suspect a reasonable tolling system is going to be the negotiated outcome." WTI is down 4.2% at $76.96 a barrel and Brent is off 3.7% at $80.68.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1033 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME are down 0.3%, continuing the move down from Monday--but lean hogs may steady, says Ben Johnson of New Frontier Capital Markets in a note. One reason may be higher cutout prices reported by the USDA, with carcass cutouts rising 90 cents per hundredweight to $100.91 per cwt. Hams were among the cutouts that rose, climbing $2.19 per cwt to $83.94 per cwt. "Hams bounced...they need to settle in," says Johnson. Live cattle is virtually unchanged.(kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1031 ET - Weakness in crude oil prices seem to be pressuring CBOT grains, with the renewable-fuels connection more of a factor versus yesterday. "The weakness in grains appears to mostly be coming from spillover selling related to oil after Bessent made comments that a U.S./Iran deal was coming together, which put oil down $2.50 [a barrel] while equities are set to start the day at new all-time highs," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. Crude oil is down 5.4%, to roughly $76 a barrel, while Brent crude falls 4.6% to $79.88 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1028 ET - Oil prices extend losses after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there's a chance the U.S. will have a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz Tuesday or Wednesday. "We are in talks with the Iranians and I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict," Bessent said on CNBC. Brent crude is down 4.6% to $79.89 a barrel, while WTI futures fall 5.3% to $76.11 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0956 ET - The USDA has confirmed another flash sale of soybean exports to China, following Monday's announcement and sales reported in recent weeks. Today, the USDA says that 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were purchased for delivery to China in the 2026/27 marketing year. Meanwhile, in its Crop Progress report, the government says U.S. soybean acres remained in 63% good-or-excellent condition. That's unchanged from this time last week. CBOT soybean futures are down in early trading, sinking 1.2%. Corn falls 0.9% and wheat is off 1.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0940 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower, following their recent pattern of rising one day and falling the next as solid production and soft LNG feedgas offset high seasonal power-sector demand. While weather forecasts have been leaning toward warmer than normal, "temperature deviations from normal don't yet appear sufficient to spur much of a price advance from here," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. As the U.S. moves into the late stage of the cooling cycle, "this is beginning to look like a market that can be approached from both sides in the coming weeks as the weather factor diminishes in importance," the firm adds. Nymex natural gas is down 3% at $2.697/mmBtu.