TradingKey - On August 7, Eastern Time, SpaceX ( SPCX) broke through an interim high of $126.71. However, just yesterday on August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million insider restricted shares was officially unlocked, potentially releasing approximately $100 billion in market capitalization. Yet, the market sell-off that had been widely priced in did not materialize.
SpaceX ultimately closed up 6.14% on Thursday, with a full-day trading volume of 255 million shares and a trading value of $28.2 billion, marking the highest turnover since July 7, with a stock turnover rate of over 40%.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, meanwhile, viewed this unlock as an entry opportunity rather than a warning signal, calling SpaceX 'a potential generational compounder capable of converting energy into networked/swarm intelligence at scale.'
On the news front, SpaceX and Tesla announced yesterday an initial investment of $16.8 billion to build Terafab, an integrated artificial intelligence semiconductor factory, in Grimes County, Texas. The factory aims to narrow the gap between global chip supply and the more than 1 terawatt of computing power that SpaceX and Tesla are projected to require over the coming years. SpaceX stated in a Thursday announcement on its official website that future expansion phases could significantly increase the total investment, adding that the factory will create at least 3,000 jobs.
At the same time, SpaceX received rating and price target upgrades from several analysts. Argus Research analyst Steve Silver upgraded SpaceX from Hold to Buy and announced a price target of $160; Bernstein raised its price target for SpaceX from $239 to $248.
Citi stated that SpaceX's second-quarter 2026 results exceeded expectations, with revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA across the company's three main segments all beating the bank's forecasts. In particular, the adjusted EBITDA for the AI segment exceeded the bank's estimate by nearly $1.5 billion. Rated 'Buy' with a price target of $200.
SpaceX 2-hour price chart, Source: TradingView
According to the SpaceX price chart, volume and price rose in tandem during today's intraday trading, with the stock price strongly breaking through the previous high of $126.7 and briefly testing the $128 level. The recovery rally that previously began from the low of $105.11 surged again after a brief pullback, allowing short-term bulls to regain control. However, the price is rapidly moving away from short- and medium-term moving averages, and the strength of buying support after the breakout has yet to be confirmed.
For the short term, primary support lies at the previous high ($126.70), which serves as the critical line determining whether this breakout is valid. If the price holds firm after a pullback, the bullish structure is expected to continue. The next resistance is the 1.272 Fibonacci extension ($132.57), with a further target at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ($140.04).
It is worth noting that if the price falls back below $126.70 and fails to recover quickly, caution is advised against the breakout turning into a false breakout, which could lead to a retest of supports at $124.19 and $122.09.
Only with consecutive closes above $126.70 and a gradual breakout above $132.57 can the continuation of the upward trend be further confirmed.
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