The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0537 GMT - The policy-setting board of the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep the official cash rate at 4.35% at its August 11 policy meeting, says Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ. Boyton expects the on-hold decision to be unanimous, with the board also debating a rate hike, he adds. The combination of a higher-than-expected unemployment rate, lower-than-expected inflation, and softer activity data supports keeping rates on hold, he says. The RBA will retain the option to hike further given that inflation remains above target, Boyton adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0531 GMT - Despite upside risks to inflation, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are likely to keep interest rates on hold this year, Indosuez Wealth Management's Gregory Steiner and Benedicte Kukla say in a note. "Our base case is that the ECB will stand pat; however, for this to hold, the Middle East situation will need to improve from here," global head of asset allocation Steiner and chief strategist Kukla say. They continue to view the energy shock as significant but ultimately temporary. For the ECB, financial conditions in the eurozone have tightened since the June meeting, keeping policymakers on a hawkish hold, they say. The ECB raised interest rates in June. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0528 GMT - A clean break in 10-year Japanese government bond yields above 3% "will be tricky in the near term," say Societe Generale's Stephen Spratt and Reo Sakida in a note. "Government signaling from July has made this level psychologically relevant, and we expect a paring back of shorts as we approach it," the strategists say. Yields above 3%-3.30% begin to tilt the debt-to-GDP outlook higher, something the government wants to avoid, as it risks inhibiting issuance capacity and threatens its key plans, they say. The 10-year JGB yield is down 3.5 basis points at 2.810%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0511 GMT - While financing estimates point to rising borrowing needs, the U.S. Treasury is expected to keep coupon auction issue sizes unchanged and reiterate its guidance of maintaining them for at least the next several quarters, Barclays rates strategists say in a note. On Monday, the Treasury announced higher borrowing estimates for the quarter than it forecast in May and is set to detail the issuance details Wednesday. "Tweaking the guidance at this meeting would likely exacerbate the selloff at the long end," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0508 GMT - For fixed income, risks around growth have diminished and this puts inflation in focus, Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets says in a note. "We think inflation comes in lower than expected across the U.S, euro area, U.K. and Japan over the next 12 months, with core inflation close to target by YE27," the global head of fixed income research says. If correct, this should warrant less hawkish policy than markets price, he says.