The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0639 GMT - The dollar is expected to trade between 4.07 ringgit and 4.10 ringgit next week, with risks tilted toward modest strength for the Malaysian currency, Kenanga economists say in a note. Kenanga's baseline assumes continued negotiations to contain risks around the Strait of Hormuz without disrupting global energy supply. Softer U.S. labor market conditions and only modest inflation should reinforce Kenanga's view that the Federal Reserve remains on an extended pause. "This diverges from current market pricing of a September hike, and is the key swing factor behind our ringgit-strength bias," Kenanga says. The dollar is flat at 4.0850 ringgit.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0606 GMT - The New Zealand economy appears to have weathered the conflict in the Middle East fairly well but hasn't emerged totally unscathed, says Westpac chief economist, Kelly Eckhold. Recent labor market data this week confirms significant excess capacity remains which is helping to restrain inflation pressures, he adds. Nevertheless, inflation remains too high, and wage pressures appear sticky, raising questions on how easy it will be to bring inflation back to 2%. Eckhold notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely need to do more than it currently suggests to achieve that, an assessment markets seem to share. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0540 GMT - The euro has room to rebound further against the dollar, based on charts, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's global economics and markets research in a report. However, the euro must first exceed major resistance in US$1.1560-US$1.1565 zone, the senior technical strategist says. Upper boundary of daily Ichimoku cloud at US$1.1560 was tested a few times this week but remained intact, the strategist notes. Declining weekly trendline from January's high is currently near US$1.1565. If the euro surpasses and holds above the resistance area, it could extend gains toward June's minor peak of US$1.0622, the strategist adds. The euro is little changed at US$1.1521. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0540 GMT - The case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the official cash rate unchanged next week rests on the policy-setting board's view that settings are already a bit restrictive, says Antipodean Macro. The firm also notes that labor market conditions have eased slightly faster than expected, and that a weaker housing market poses downside risks to economic activity. Market pricing sees next to no chance of a rate hike next week, but there remains a nagging case to get the cash rate to a higher level, especially as the RBA didn't get the job done last year, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0529 GMT - Questions are being asked about when Japan's Ministry of Finance will intervene again to support yen. Some in the markets have pointed to the IMF's exchange rate regime classification as a potential constraint, says Carol Kong, FX strategist at CBA. Under the IMF's framework, a currency may lose its free‑floating designation if there are more than three intervention episodes over a rolling six‑month period. Kong doesn't believe the MoF will be constrained by the IMF classification as it carries little practical consequence. The MoF will intervene if it judges yen moves to be disorderly, she adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0522 GMT - The U.S. dollar index traded in a tight range around 99.95 in a quiet Asian session. The focus now shifts to U.S. non‑farm payrolls for July, which is a key input into the timing of the Fed's eventual tightening cycle. The unemployment rate will need to fall further before the Fed will raise interest rates, says Carol Kong, FX strategist at CBA. CBA is forecasting the U.S. unemployment will hold steady at 4.2% in July. Markets are currently pricing around a 55% chance of a September hike by the Fed, but Kong says she expects the central bank to wait until December before starting a modest tightening cycle. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0519 GMT - An election in Australia's southern state of Victoria in November is being watched because it could deliver a message about federal voting patterns. An SMS Roy Morgan Poll show the Liberal-National coalition's primary votes rising to 26% this month from 24% in April, with Labor on 26%, up 0.5%. One Nation is attracting 23.5% support, down 1%. Crucially, the coalition is now ahead of the Labor government on a two-party preferred basis with 51% support compared with Labor on 49%. If an election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with great uncertainty about the results in many electorates, the poll shows. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0503 GMT - Australian financial markets are pricing almost no chance of an interest rate rise next week at the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting. Still, there's scope for the central bank to sound hawkish, which could translate into some upward momentum for the Australian dollar, says Mahjabeen Zaman, head of FX research at ANZ. At the same time, there is little that can be said or done to drive a more dovish outcome than is already priced in, she adds. The main source of surprise could be the vote split. Any dissent in favor of a hike may add modestly to hawkish pricing, Zaman says.