Shopify Earnings Flip the Script on AI Fears

Dow Jones
08/05

And just like that, investors are looking a lot less worried about AI.

Shares of Shopify soared 19% to $146.57 on Wednesday and were on pace to close at their highest level since Jan. 16 as the AI-fueled pressure on Shopify shares seemed to be in the rearview mirror. The stock, however, is still down about 9% this year.

The reversal in fortunes for Shopify shares came as the e-commerce platform posted second-quarter revenue of $3.58 billion, up 34% from a year ago and coming in above Wall Street's expectation of $3.46 billion.

That was driven by strong results in the company's merchant solutions segment, which saw revenue grow 37% to $2.78 billion. Gross profit came in at $1.71 billion, beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.65 billion.

Shopify also cleared $115.57 billion in gross merchandise value, up from $87.84 billion a year ago and above the analyst consensus estimate of $112.11 billion, according to FactSet.

The company, best known as a one-stop-shop software and payments platform for businesses of any size, wasn't done.

Shopify forecast third-quarter revenue to grow by a low-thirties percentage with gross profit growing by a mid-to-high-twenties percentage.

The response from Wall Street was overwhelmingly positive.

TD Cowen called it an "incredible beat-and-raise" for the historically softer second quarter. The firm added that the stock price reaction was "well-justified."

Seaport Research Partners analyst Jeff Cantwell, meanwhile, wrote Wednesday that the second-quarter performance and the third-quarter guidance were both "very strong."

"We see the company executing on its strategy of delivering strong growth and pairing it with strict financial discipline," Cantwell added.

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein used the earnings call to push back against the widespread investor thesis that AI will disrupt software -- and Shopify's offerings.

"Our open ecosystem model is uniquely well suited for this agentic era," Finkelstein said.

He added that OpenAI, Alphabet-owned Google, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft have all chosen to partner with Shopify over the last year.

"Every new surface area they build is another place our merchants can sell, all because they're on Shopify," Finkelstein said. "Whether commerce is handled by humans or agents, whether stores are built by people or AI, Shopify runs underneath it all."

 

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