While some big-name insurers have chosen to exit the Affordable Care Act marketplace, lesser-known Oscar Health has grown its membership -- and seen its stock more than double this year. The company's second-quarter earnings report Thursday morning will show if the trend has staying power.
Oscar's stock has surged 110% year to date, compared with 13% for the benchmark S&P 500.
The company delivered a big beat in the first quarter, with earnings of $2.07 a share, well above the $1.11 consensus estimate. However, investors pay particular attention to a health insurer's second-quarter results, which reflects more medical claims data among members.
Analysts expect earnings of 40 cents a share on $4.73 billion in revenue for the second quarter, according to FactSet. That compares with a loss of 89 cents on $2.86 billion in revenue during the same quarter last year.
The average analyst rating on the insurer's stock is Hold, with average price target of $26.09, according to FactSet. The stock closed at $30.11 on Wednesday.
Oscar's success so far comes as the ACA marketplace population on the whole gets smaller. In late 2025, temporary federal subsidies that had helped many individuals afford to purchase coverage expired. About three million fewer people are enrolled in ACA coverage this year compared with 2025, according to federal figures.
Despite that trend, Oscar Health has seen more ACA enrollees.
"Where most players shrunk in their membership, Oscar grew a lot and they took a lot of market," Stephens analyst Raj Kumar told Barron's. As of March 31, Oscar's 3.2 million members represented a 56% uptick from a year prior, according to a company filing.
Meanwhile, some insurers have headed for the ACA exits entirely. The Cigna Group won't participate in the marketplace in 2027, the company said during its first-quarter earnings call in April. CVS Health announced last year it would stop offering ACA plans in 2026, citing financial underperformance.
For those larger, more diversified insurers, the ACA isn't core to their respective businesses, says Kumar, whereas for Oscar, "this is their end market, this is their baby."