Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) Casdatifan therapy for renal cell carcinoma could be launched in 2028 and potentially generate $1.40 billion in unadjusted revenue by 2035, Morgan Stanley said in a Monday note.

The estimates are risk-adjusted based on a 60% probability of success, the brokerage said. Arcus is set to release further data on three Casdatifan settings in October, with each setting pairing its therapy with different antibodies, according to the note.

Arcus is also on track for a readout of Quemliclustat's phase 3 trial in pancreatic cancer in H1 2027 and kickstart clinical development of its early immunology portfolio, the investment firm added.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley projected an initial launch for Arvinas' (ARVN) investigational ARV-393 therapy for non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients in 2029. The brokerage estimates unadjusted sales of $1.30 billion by 2035, risk-adjusted using a 25% probability of success.

The investment firm also noted that it adjusted its model for Arvinas to account for Veppanu royalties and milestone payments, instead of end-user sales, given an exclusive license deal on the therapy. Veppanu is a newly approved therapy for breast cancer, according to the note.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Arcus Biosciences to $23 from $22 and cut that of Arvinas to $10 from $11, both with an equal-weight rating.

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