Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Aug. 10.
U.S. inflation data for July will be firmly in focus after recent weak jobs data brought the need for an interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve in the coming months into question.
In Asia, an interest-rate decision is due in Australia, while the Bank of Japan's latest Summary of Opinions could offer clues on the timing of its next rate increase.
In Europe, eurozone and U.K. gross domestic product data are due, while investors will continue to keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East.
U.S.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for July were unexpectedly weak, revealing a drop of 23,000 over the month, way below the consensus forecast of economists in a Wall Street Journal survey for an increase of 83,000 and casting doubts over whether the Fed could raise interest rates in September.
This will leave sharp focus on Wednesday's release of July consumer-price inflation figures, which could be an important factor in whether or not the Fed raises rates next month. The data come after June's inflation data came in below forecasts.
U.S. money markets currently price around a 44% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, LSEG data show. Weak inflation data could cause this pricing to come down further.
HSBC economists said they expect the inflation data to show "surprising softness across many core categories, leading both headline and core CPI to undershoot consensus expectations."
ING chief international economist James Knightley said the recent surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report "casts serious doubt on Fed rate hikes."
ING expects that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, potentially well into 2027, although much will depend on what happens to inflation, as well as whether a deal can be done between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he said in a note.
A subdued inflation report on Wednesday, alongside a deal to reopen Hormuz, could "feed through into lower gasoline prices and keep the disinflation trend in place through to year-end and beyond."
Further information on inflation will come from producer prices figures for July on Thursday. On Friday, retail sales figures and the University of Michigan's preliminary sentiment survey for August will give a steer on U.S. consumer activity.
Other data include existing home sales for July on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
The Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Eurozone
The data calendar will be thin in the coming week. The week's highlight will likely be the second estimate of eurozone GDP data for the second quarter on Friday, which will provide insight into the growth impact of the Middle East war.
Final CPI inflation data for July are due from Germany and Italy on Wednesday, Spain on Thursday and France on Friday.
Eurozone industrial production figures for June will be released on Thursday, followed by June trade numbers and second-quarter employment figures on Friday. Spain will release industrial orders and turnover data for June on Friday.
Germany will auction October 2031-dated Bobl on Tuesday as well as May 2038- and August 2043-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Finland will hold a bond auction on Tuesday.
U.K.
The main data event in the U.K. is the release of the first estimate of second-quarter GDP data due on Thursday. The data are likely to show the impact of the Middle East war on the U.K. economy.
"We expect a fairly marked slowdown from the strong 0.6% quarterly print in the first quarter, not least due to the disruption caused by the Iran conflict," Ebury head of market strategy Matthew Ryan said in a note.
Industrial production and trade data for June will also be released on Thursday.
The BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor for July, a measure of the health of the U.K. retail industry and consumer demand, will be published on Tuesday.
The RICS U.K. house-price survey for July is due to be released Thursday.
The U.K. will sell September 2035 index-linked gilts at an auction on Wednesday.
Scandinavia
Norway's central bank announces a policy decision Thursday, where it is expected to leave its main policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, though investors will watch for any signals on future moves.
Lower-than-expected inflation since Norges Bank's June meeting and the real economy developing in line with expectations argues in favor of rates staying on hold, HSBC economists said.
Ahead of the decision, Norway inflation data for July are due Monday. Swedish final July inflation figures are released Thursday.
Sweden will conduct a bond auction on Wednesday.
Japan
Japan's key data releases include the June current-account balance on Monday and July producer-price inflation on Thursday, ING chief economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, said in a report. The consensus forecast is for producer prices to rise 7.5% from a year earlier, accelerating from June's 7.1% increase. This would reflect continued price pressures from higher energy and import costs, compounded by a weaker yen, Song said.
The Bank of Japan will release the Summary of Opinions from its July 30-31 meeting on Monday. The central bank voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged at the meeting. In his postmeeting news conference, Gov. Kazuo Ueda expressed growing concern about upside inflation risks and raised the possibility of accelerating the rate-increase cycle. Investors will examine the summary for further clues about the timing of future increases.
The BOJ is likely to raise its policy rate in October, earlier than Natixis CIB Research's previous forecast for a December increase, two members of its research team said. They cited Ueda's remarks and the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen on July 31, which they said could allow the BOJ to raise rates sooner.
The BOJ is scheduled to buy multiple segments of the Japanese government-bond market on Thursday, including debt with maturities of more than three years and up to five years, as well as debt maturing in more than 25 years. The purchases could support the domestic bond market.
Japan's Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction about 250 billion yen of 10-year inflation-indexed government bonds on Wednesday. The bonds will reopen the May 2026 issue, according to the ministry. The auction could attract investors seeking protection against elevated inflation.
China
China faces a quieter week after a busy run of economic data. The main event will be the release of money-supply and credit figures on Wednesday, which could shed light on business investment and consumer demand in the world's second-largest economy.
ANZ Research expects credit growth to remain weak. It forecasts M1 growth holding at 4.0% and M2 growth slowing to 7.8%, partly because of a higher year-earlier comparison.
Recent indicators point to slower local-government spending. Growth in aggregate financing, previously supported by government-bond issuance, is expected to ease to 7.3% in July from 7.4% in June. New yuan loans are forecast to total 10.560 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, implying a 160 billion yuan decline in July because of seasonal weakness, ANZ said.
Foreign direct-investment data due Friday will offer another gauge of global companies' appetite for investing in China. Investment decisions have been clouded by tighter U.S. technology restrictions, persistent trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Australian bond markets will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting. The central bank is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35% while retaining a bias toward further tightening, as inflation remains above target.
Recent data have shown weaker-than-expected inflation and signs of a cooling labor market, giving the RBA room to wait. The central bank raised rates three times at the start of the year, and the effects of those increases are still working through the economy.
India
India will release July consumer-price data on Wednesday. The figures will be closely watched for signs that broader price pressures remain contained amid high energy costs and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Daily food-price data rose more than 4% from the previous month in July, likely contributing to a slight increase in headline inflation, ANZ Research analyst Dhiraj Nim said. Nim expects inflation to edge up to 4.5% from 4.4% in June.
DBS economists expect core inflation to remain below 4%, helped by lower precious-metals prices during the month.
Malaysia
Malaysia will release revised second-quarter gross domestic product data on Friday. Advance estimates showed the economy grew 5.8% from a year earlier, led by the services sector.
The final reading is expected to confirm growth of more than 5%, supported by stronger exports and global demand linked to artificial intelligence, DBS economists said.
Singapore
Singapore will release revised second-quarter gross domestic product data on Tuesday.
Advance estimates released in July showed that economic growth slowed to 5.7% from a year earlier.
Manufacturing growth could be revised higher after factory output strengthened in June, UOB Senior Economist Alvin Liew said. UOB expects the sector's growth to be raised to 12.5% from the advance estimate of 12.2%.
If construction and services growth are unchanged, overall second-quarter GDP growth could be revised to 5.8% from 5.7%, Liew said.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry is also likely to raise its official 2026 GDP growth forecast to a range of 4%-5% from 2%-4%, UOB said. The bank added that an even stronger upgrade to 4.5%-5.5% wouldn't be surprising.
Any references to days are in local times.