0729 GMT - Novartis's odds of success in a late-stage trial for cholesterol-lowering drug pelacarsen seem in the balance, analysts at J.P. Morgan say in a note. For the trial to be successful, the Swiss drugmaker likely needs the medicine to cut cardiovascular risk by 13% in the overall population and by 15% in patients with at least 90 milligrams per deciliter of lipoprotein(a)--a variant of the so-called bad cholesterol--in their blood, according to JPM. The analysts see a 40% chance of this happening. "Even if the trial was successful, we see the ultimate commercial opportunity as relatively limited given a borderline statistically significant result is unlikely to be seen as sufficiently clinically meaningful to support adoption of Lp(a) testing and widespread use of an additional therapy," they add. Novartis shares rise 0.3%.