UBS Turns More Cautious on Hong Kong Property Developers

Dow Jones

08/13

0402 GMT - UBS turns more cautious on Hong Kong property developers with the market yet to fully price in risks stemming from AI disruption to jobs, rising housing supply from the Northern Metropolis, and slower population inflows. Home prices are expected to remain broadly flat in 2H 2026 and 2027 versus consensus of 5%-6% rise in 2027, says analyst Mark Leung in a note. Interest-rate uncertainty and tighter cross-border investment controls could further limit house price appreciation. Residential rents should continue to grow in the near term, but begin to slow from 2028. For offices, potential AI-driven job displacement is likely to offset the benefit of a declining supply pipeline, Leung says. UBS expects office vacancy to remain in the low teens, supporting only 2% annual rent growth over 2025-2030.

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Home prices are expected to remain broadly flat in 2H 2026 and 2027 versus consensus of 5%-6% rise in 2027, says analyst Mark Leung in a note. Interest-rate uncertainty and tighter cross-border investment controls could further limit house price appreciation. Residential rents should continue to grow in the near term, but begin to slow from 2028. For offices, potential AI-driven job displacement is likely to offset the benefit of a declining supply pipeline, Leung says. 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