Walmart and Target Are About to Reveal the Health of the U.S. Consumer

Dow Jones
08/17

Second-quarter earnings so far might be among the strongest on record — but companies like retailers and hotels haven’t been major contributors to the blowout performance.

Analysts at Seaport Research noted Friday that the collective earnings per share for S&P 500 companies is expected to jump 53.1% for the second quarter, helped bymassive one-time gainsfrom companies like Alphabet and Amazon.com that came in large part from their investments in Anthropic.

But the research firm said that even without those unrealized gains, “this would still be the strongest season on record, save postrecessionary rebounds.” Higher oil prices due to the Iran war have also lifted the bottom line for the energy sector, which in turn has boosted revenue for the S&P 500 overall.

Meanwhile, BofA analysts, in a note last Sunday, said that consumer-oriented companies like retailers have trailed other sectors, with median EPS growth of 7% in the consumer-discretionary sector and 9% in consumer staples. Those two sectors were among the three weakest overall, the BofA analysts noted.

That assessment comes ahead of earnings reports this week from Walmart and Target, which will offer a glimpse into the behavior of inflation-fatigued shoppers. Target reports results on Wednesday, while Walmart reports on Thursday.

Last time around, Walmart said people were putting less gas in their tanks as they tried to manage higher costs of living. The chain’s CFO said at the time that this sort of behavior was “an indication of stress.” Meanwhile, Target faced skepticism over its turnaround efforts, as consumers prioritize basic essentials over clothing and home decor.

The BofA analysts said that the bank’s own card data suggested lower-income consumers were recovering, although they said commentary from companies was still mixed.

“The younger cohort, the lower-income cohort, they really have improved the most compared to everyone else,” Chipotle Mexican Grill CFO Adam Rymer said on the fast-casual restaurant chain’s earnings call last month.

Meanwhile, hotel chain Hilton Worldwide said on its quarterly earnings call last month that the middle class was “getting back in the game.” Visa, meanwhile, said it hadn’t seen signs of weaker spending.

Others on recent earnings calls expressed deeper reservations. Clorox said “all consumers” were still seeking discounts. And Procter & Gamble pointed to an ongoing divide among consumers, with wealthier shoppers spending and lower-income ones struggling.

“The more-pressured consumer, that will be more impacted by gas prices or incremental $100 of gas cost per week, they continue to look for smaller pack sizes,” Procter & Gamble CFO Andre Schulten said last month. “They continue to be very affected by promotion patterns. So none of that has changed.”

應版權方要求,你需要登入查看該內容

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

熱議股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10