The Market's August Rally is Sizzlin'

Dow Jones
08/13

The worries on Wall Street are the same now as they were before the latest inflation numbers came out Wednesday -- and all are tied to the economy: rising prices, uncertainty about the Iran War's impact on oil, and whether the Fed will cut or hike rates.

But something investors aren't wringing their hands over is the stock market's surprising summer rally. They're all in -- and they're going to play it out.

Why not? Inflation is still in the background, but the monthly consumer price index report that came out Wednesday before the opening bell certainly could have been much worse.

July inflation quickened -- ever so slightly -- from June. The monthly overall reading was up 0.1%, but the annual rate inched down to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% on the month and 2.5% on the year, matching economic forecasts.

"This is essentially what the Fed wants to see." said Luke Rahbari, CEO at Equity Armor Investments. "That said, we've had so many starts and stops with the war in the Middle East, along with wild swings in oil and gasoline prices, that this picture could change day to day."

The numbers, Rahbari said, "put the Fed in exactly the position it wants to be in. It doesn't have to do anything."

Glenmede's Jason Pride agrees.

"Neither figure delivered the upside surprise that would have built a case for tightening nor the downside surprise that would have clearly argued for keeping policy unchanged," said Pride, who is chief of investment strategy. "But on the margin it strengthens the case for the Fed to remain on hold."

The overall inflation rate, when combined with last week's surprisingly weak jobs report, is certainly starting to filter through to Fed rate forecasts. The odds of a September hike fell to 38%, from around 50% the previous day, on the CME Group's FedWatch projector.

Bond markets are still digesting the data. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.66% and longer-dated 30-year bonds rose 2 basis points rose to 5.23%.

The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield, however, moved 2 basis points lower to 4.18%.

Still, none of the market action gives a definitive look into how the central bank may respond or how nervous investors are about inflation, seems inexorably linked to the war.

Global crude is up more than 16% higher over the past month, and crossed the $90 a barrel threshold earlier this week, despite President Donald Trump's declaration of America's "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz.

For Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management, rising oil prices are going to be a top worry for investors until the shipping waterway is open.

"With the Strait of Hormuz still shut, upside inflation risks will remain top of mind for the foreseeable future." said Seema Shah, who is chief global strategist.

"We expect no change in rates this year but cannot dismiss the elevated risks of a hike later in the year if energy disruptions are sustained, while the threat of an AI-induced rise in inflation also cannot be ignored," she added.

Having two inflation wild cards still in the deck this late in the summer, however, will probably add more volatility to a market that is already grappling with the Fed under new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, better known as the MOVE index and a key benchmark for bond traders looking at near-term risks, has eased notably over the past week, but remains more than 16% higher than prewar levels.

"The bond market has established a generous risk and term premium since Warsh took office," said Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital in Dallas.

"The market is allocating both inflation and term risk to anything past five years in duration as Warsh has been tight-lipped on providing any solutions or even guidance to a solution for how they plan to get inflation under control."

But that might not derail the equity market rally, which has taken the S&P 500 nearly 6% higher since the final days of July and within just a handful of points from the all-time high it reached last week. Its drivers are second-quarter earnings blowouts and a reignited AI trade.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for NorthLight Asset Management, sums it up well.

"The market and the Fed won't stop worrying about inflation, but these two reports (July jobs and inflation) are going to go a long way toward keeping the bulls running in the near term."

 

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