The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0305 GMT - Malaysia's 2H GDP growth is forecast to moderate to 4.3% from 5.7% in 1H, as economic expansion normalizes amid a less-favorable base and rising external headwinds, UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting say in a note. Growth is expected to remain supported by resilient domestic demand, AI- and data-center-related investment, and tourism, while manageable inflation should provide further support, they say. However, risks from Middle East tensions, ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, evolving El Nino conditions and global market volatility could be key downside risks. UOB raises its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.5%, following stronger-than-expected 2Q growth. It expects Bank Negara Malaysia to keep its policy rate at 2.75%, while remaining vigilant to ongoing external developments. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0255 GMT - Bitcoin rises in early Asian trade. The cryptocurrency is in the later stage of a bear market, Glassnode analysts say. Fewer investors are sending bitcoin to exchanges to sell, and many of the remaining sellers appear to be running out of Bitcoin they want to sell. Meanwhile, investors have started betting on a rebound before clear evidence of a stronger demand. Buyers are still largely missing, with ETF inflows weak and spot trading activity at its lowest level since 2019. Bitcoin continues to underperform equities, which are trading near record highs. Glassnode says a more convincing recovery would require Bitcoin to move back above $68,700 with stronger trading volume. Bitcoin is 0.3% higher at $63,216.86. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0234 GMT - The Singapore dollar strengthens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session, buoyed by economic data released earlier which showed Singapore's July non-oil exports climbed 24.2% on year. The data reinforce Singapore dollar's "support from the ongoing semiconductor upcycle," MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. Also, the data highlight "the economy's continued leverage to the recovery in global technology demand," the senior currency analyst adds. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% lower at 1.2777 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0149 GMT - Japan's latest GDP data was good enough to keep the central bank's normalization efforts on track, but the composition wasn't all that convincing, says Krishna Bhimavarapu at State Street Investment Management. Economic growth during the quarter was driven largely by net exports, while domestic demand was essentially flat, the economist says in a note. While part of the disappointment could be because of stronger-than-expected growth in the deflator rather than outright weakness in spending, Bhimavarapu thinks the decline in imports alongside gains in real compensation suggest that the BOJ would do well to proceed with caution. "We continue to expect a September hike, but see little in today's data to justify a faster normalization path beyond that." (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0147 GMT - JGBs fall in price terms on prospects of a faster pace of BOJ rate increases. BofA Global Research's new base case is for the BOJ to accelerate to a roughly quarterly pace, with rate hikes projected for September and December of 2026 and for March and July of 2027, bringing the policy rate to 2%. Coordinated U.S.-Japan forex intervention has "raised the stakes around Japan's defense of the yen," says Shusuke Yamada, FX and rates strategist at BofA Global Research. "A sustained defense of the yen, however, requires a change in Japan's policy mix," says Yamada, who sees this adjustment likely happening via monetary policy. The JGB 10-year yield rises 5 bps to 2.925%, its highest intraday level since September 1996. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0138 GMT - Malaysia's consumer-price index likely rose 1.9% on year in July, unchanged from the previous month, according to the median estimate of five economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Price pressures likely remained contained, as government subsidies offset higher fuel and energy costs, DBS economists Taimur Baig and Chua Han Teng say in a note. Inflation should remain manageable and is unlikely to prompt a policy rate adjustment on its own, while Bank Negara Malaysia will watch whether resilient growth and domestic demand lead to broader price pressures that could eventually prompt BNM to adjust its policy stance, ANZ economists Vicky Xiao Zhou and Raymond Yeung say in a separate note. The CPI data are due later Monday. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0053 GMT - Falling prices for fuel in New Zealand is taking some of the sting out of inflation. Gasoline and diesel fuel prices both decreased in July from June, according to figures released by Stats NZ. Gasoline prices were down 5.7% on month, while diesel prices decreased 12.1% on month. It's the third consecutive month for fuel price falls, following increases in March and April. Gasoline and diesel prices are now below levels recorded in March, although they remain higher than in February, the data shows. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0052 GMT - Asian currencies strengthen slightly against the dollar amid reduced Fed rate-hike expectations that could bolster risk appetite. These expectations are driven by benign inflation and softer labor market data in the U.S., two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a research report. "Markets now price only a 30% probability of a Fed hike next month, down from around 55% before the July [U.S.] jobs report," the strategists note. However, "the Fed will receive another round of CPI and employment data before its September meeting," the strategists add. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% lower at 159.08 yen, while Australian dollar is 0.1% higher at US$0.7089, LSEG data show.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0036 GMT - The JGB yield curve steepens slightly in early Tokyo trade, tracking Friday's steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. Also, this morning's 1st preliminary data indicating slower-than-expected 2Q real GDP growth in Japan may diminish likelihood of a BOJ rate hike next month, which could limit rises in shorter-term yields, while long-term yields advance on lingering concerns over Japan's fiscal spending. The two-year JGB yield is up 1.5 bps at 1.665%, while 30-year yield is up 2 bps at 4.030%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0031 GMT - With the Reserve Bank of Australia keeping the flame of further interest rate increases alight recently, markets will watch nervously the release of July employment data on Thursday. Still, Lucinda Jerogin, associate economist at CBA warns the data could be noisy. The federal government conducted a national census last week which required the hiring of many part time workers that may skew the data. Still, the release will provide another important test of whether the labor market is slowing as the RBA expects, she says. CBA expects a soft outcome with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0020 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.5% to 69086.56 in early trade, aided by preliminary estimates showing weaker-than-expected 2Q GDP growth. The weaker print could prompt the Bank of Japan to hold off raising rates as soon as next month. Japan's 2Q real GDP grew 0.3% on-quarter, missing economists' estimate for 0.5% growth. "The details were a mixed bag," says Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, in commentary. Among top performers on Japan's Topix, non-ferrous metals sector rose 2.9% and marine transport sector added 1.8%. The dollar is at 159.14 yen, compared with Y159.30 late Friday in New York. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2338 GMT - Japanese stocks may rise on lingering hopes for a pause by the Fed in raising rates. U.S. economic data released Friday showed weak retail sales and consumer sentiment, backing the case for the Fed to refrain from tightening monetary policy soon. Nikkei futures opened 115 points higher at 68855 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.21 yen, compared with Y159.30 late Friday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.6% higher at 68713.80 on Friday.