Tracking the Market Trend

TradingKey - Pressure from the bond market sent U.S. stocks down for a third consecutive session, with the Nasdaq plunging more than 1%.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.22% to 53,343.40; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.33% to 26,289.71; and the S&P 500 declined 0.69% to 7,691.76.

The chip sector was the biggest drag. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell nearly 5%, with SK Hynix (SKHY) and Seagate (STX) both dropping more than 9%, and SanDisk (SNDK) falling 9%. AI-related stocks also weakened, with CoreWeave (CRWV) down 12%, and the two optical communications giants, Coherent(COHR) and Lumentum(LITE), falling nearly 13% and nearly 10%, respectively.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East continued to unsettle markets, with long-term Treasury yields fluctuating at elevated levels. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note hit a new intraday high—its highest since 2007—before turning lower, while yields on medium- and long-term German bonds continued to set new records not seen since 2011.

Geopolitical risks continued to prop up energy prices, with the U.S.-Iran standoff driving crude oil prices higher for the third consecutive session; U.S. crude rose nearly 2% intraday, while Brent crude hit a three-week high.

Gold(XAUUSD) retreated from a more than two-month high, falling nearly 2% during the session; silver futures fell more than 4% at one point; Bitcoin(BTC) approached $65,000 during the session for the first time in a week, rebounding nearly 2% from its daily low.

Market Headline

Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz “new U.S. territory,” further escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. In his latest statement, Trump claimed he would not hold talks with Iran either now or in the future, and displayed a map marking the Strait of Hormuz as “new U.S. territory.” Iranian media swiftly countered, calling Trump’s claim “delusional.” The two sides remain at odds over control of the strait—Trump claims the strait remains open for navigation, while Iran’s speaker of parliament states it will remain closed until the U.S. meets the conditions outlined in the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Qatar, acting as a mediator, revealed that it is awaiting an agreement between Iran and Oman regarding the strait to facilitate the resumption of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the strait. Iranian officials claimed that the U.S. had considered applying the “Venezuela model” to Iran but failed to do so. U.S. media reports indicate that the U.S. is considering maintaining a small military presence in the Persian Gulf after hostilities end.

On the eve of its IPO, Anthropic is significantly expanding its credit line, with banks scrambling to secure a spot. According to sources familiar with the matter, Anthropic plans to expand its credit line to over $10 billion—at least four times last year’s amount. Multiple banks are competing to participate in this financing round in hopes of securing an underwriting role in Anthropic’s future IPO. Under the current invitation terms, the most active banks are each committing to lend approximately $1.25 billion.

Bank of America survey sounds the alarm: Global equity positions have hit a three-year high, while cash holdings have fallen to a historic low. The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey shows that “bond market runaway” has risen to the second-largest tail risk, second only to the “AI bubble.” The extremely crowded trading landscape has triggered a double “sell” signal from Bank of America. The institution warns that the market frenzy has reached its peak, and investors should consider exiting or shifting to defensive allocations.

Apple（AAPL） is adjusting its European App Store fee rules to resolve a long-standing dispute with the EU. Apple announced Tuesday that it will shift from charging app developers per installation to collecting a 5% commission on digital transactions within apps distributed through channels other than the App Store, in order to comply with the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). App Store apps using alternative payment methods will be charged a 20% commission, which can be reduced to as low as 10% under the Small Business Program. Apple stated that the new terms are available for developers to sign starting today, and the changes will take effect on October 1.

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