Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/19

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1159 ET - CBOT corn futures started the day on a higher note due to less-than-optimal yields reported from the first day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, but that uptick evaporates as the morning progresses. Most-active corn futures are now down 0.2%. "Corn was up early in the session on more inflation buying by funds, but fell off on U.S. old crop farmer selling," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. "It feels like we have made our range for the day." Corn started the day at $4.92 a bushel, which for many farmers is over the break-even price they need to have profitable corn acres come harvest season. Soybeans are up 0.7%, and wheat falls 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1147 ET - Oil futures extend gains after President Trump says there are no talks occurring or scheduled with Iran, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating. "There's no talks happening and that's all that the market heard," says NinjaTrader Group senior economist Tracy Shuchart. While workarounds have helped keep oil prices from soaring, the stress is showing up in products with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries adding to the problem, she adds. Crude market volatility has eased, but "I think we're higher-for-longer oil and seem to be rotating Brent around $90 and WTI around $85, which is still $20 to $25 higher than last year," Shuchart adds. WTI is up 1.2% at $85.49 a barrel and Brent is 0.9% higher at $91.71. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1030 ET - U.S. natural gas futures continue their recent range-bound pattern, falling one day and rising the next, with summer heat-driven demand offset by high production and ample inventories. "Record output and the storage overhang are simply overpowering whatever residual weather-driven power burn is still left in the late-summer schedule," Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group says in a note. "Nothing in the current outlook screams massive incremental power-burn demand." Nymex natural gas is up 0.9% at $2.715/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1015 ET - The USDA says that China purchased 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, that follows multiple Chinese purchases since the start of the month. Improved demand for U.S. soybeans is giving support as prices rise back over the $12 mark, nearing year-to-date highs. CBOT soybeans are up 1.2%, while corn rises 0.5% and wheat is down 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1007 ET - Lean hog futures open down 0.7%, with a streak of selling seen last week continuing. One factor pressing on hogs appears to be seasonally weak consumer demand for pork -- with average cutout prices reported by the USDA staying under the $100 per hundredweight threshold. Meanwhile, live cattle futures rebound after inching lower Monday, with the most-active contract up 0.9% in early trading. Weakness in cattle futures has been a factor extending into hogs, says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0940 ET - Fading hopes for an agreement anytime soon to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict keep oil futures buoyant with both sides claiming to have control of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping disruption remains a concern for crude oil and product supply, with the drawdown in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest level since the early 1980s compounding the unease, Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "Prices stay hostage to Hormuz transit data and any signal from the Iran-Oman channel. A durable reopening would cap upside, while further escalation points toward a retest of the $95 to $100/barrel band for Brent." Brent is up 0.2% at $91.09 a barrel. WTI is 0.9%higher at $85.27.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0854 ET - The first day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour concluded with lower ear counts for corn in Ohio and South Dakota, as well as soybean pod counts under where they were last year. Surveys estimate Ohio's corn yield at 180.2 bushels an acre, which is well down from 185.7 bpa the year prior. In South Dakota, yield was pegged at 149.1 bpa, down 14.4% from 174.2 bpa last year. The pod count for soybeans surveyed in South Dakota fell 20% from the prior year, while in Ohio they were down 7%. Corn and soybean futures on the CBOT are higher premarket, with corn up 0.3% and soybeans climbing 0.6%. Wheat futures are virtually flat. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0633 ET - The proportion of fund managers who believe gold is undervalued jumped this month, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey for August. A net 16% of fund managers surveyed believe the previous metal trades below a fair valuation. This is the highest proportion since March 2023 and up from 6% in July--the first reporting period that a majority of investors said gold was undervalued since 2024, BofA says. Gold contracts have fallen sharply in recent months after peaking above $5,300 a troy ounce in January. However, prices have strengthened so far in August. New York contracts trade down 0.5% at $4,450.30 an ounce Tuesday.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0608 ET - Palm oil ended higher on stronger soybean oil and crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Near-term prices are likely to be driven by persistent concerns about extreme weather and El Nino in the coming months, he adds. Ng sees crude palm oil prices support at 4,800 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,950 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 39 ringgit higher at 4,860 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0558 ET - BHP's full-year results underline new CEO Brandon Craig's promising start, head of markets at AJ Bell, Dan Coatsworth, writes. Copper has driven the miner's performance and has helped deliver a healthy increase in the dividend, he adds. The market will be watching BHP's M&A ambitions closely after Craig's predecessor, Mike Henry, attempted to merge with Anglo American, Coatsworth says. BHP's London shares rise 0.4% to 3,256 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0343 ET - Gold prices slip, pressured by higher oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding bullion. In early European trading, New York futures are down 0.4% to $4,455.30 a troy ounce. Still, prices have risen more than 10% on the month. "Gold has nevertheless remained supported by renewed investor demand and stronger central-bank purchases, particularly from China," analysts at MUFG say. "Going forward, the Fed's July meeting minutes and Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks will be key for the rate outlook." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

2400 ET - The cost environment for miners "has shifted materially" as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, BHP says in its FY results. Higher energy prices have raised inflation across key regions, it says. In Australia, that's added to already elevated domestic inflation, says the miner. For Chile and Canada, it is reigniting pressure after inflation had started to ease back towards central-bank targets, it says. BHP notes that disruption to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz has also put "significant upward pressure" on sulfuric acid, diesel and ammonia markets.

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