TJX Stock Falls as Earnings Show Consumer Pullback

Dow Jones
08/19

TJX Cos., the nation's largest off-price retailer, kicked off earnings for the group on Wednesday with a better-than-expected bottom line result at a time when shoppers are hungry for bargains. But investors weren't biting.

TJX said it earned $1.22 a share on revenue of $15.18 billion. Consensus called for earnings of $1.19 a share on revenue of $15.2 billion. Total comparable sales climbed 4% in the quarter, also ahead of expectations.

For the full year, the company says it now expects earnings of between $5.15 and $5.20 a share, up from its previous forecast of $5.08 to $5.15 a share, but below the $5.23 per-share average analyst estimate.

TJX shares slipped just under 1% to $150.13 following the results. Investor concern reflects more than just the conservative full-year outlook.

Comparable sales were likely the biggest worry: Same-store sales edged up just 1% at TJX's biggest division that includes T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. That's down from 3% a year ago. Growth in apparel sales was muted at Target, which reported results today as well, raising the possibility that consumers are pulling back on clothing purchases amid ongoing inflation.

TJX, which owns T.J. Maxx, along with other brands including HomeGoods and Marshalls, is the biggest player in the off-price space, a growing part of retail that thrives on the treasure-hunt model of ever-changing inventory that brings value-conscious customers back regularly to physical stores, with minimal online presence.

Yet there could be a company-specific issue too. UBS analyst Jay Sole thinks the market will want to know if the comp disappointment "is a one-off or beginning of a share loss trend to its competitor Ross Stores." He notes, however, that the company said the third quarter was off to a strong start, with improvement in the division, giving bulls hope that the weakness was temporary.

Others worry that the company will have to lower prices to deliver stronger comparable sales growth, a margin-squeezing move that could "spill into next year," as William Blair analyst Dylan Carden puts it.

Given TJX's dominance in one of the consistently bright areas of retail, sentiment is still largely bullish. Eighty percent of the 25 analysts tracked by FactSet are bullish on the shares, with an average price target of $180, 20% higher than where the stock stands today.

Carden believes "shares will find support once there is a clearer view of downward revisions to back-half numbers, which had been anticipated in more recent trading."

 

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