Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/18

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0854 GMT - The euro could struggle to rise against the dollar in the near term given higher energy prices and uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The euro's rally on Monday stalled just above $1.16 and investors will be reluctant to push it much higher, he says. "Despite recent positive economic surprises in the eurozone, the fact that natural gas prices are close to their highs for the year merits some caution." The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1572 after rising to a two-month high of $1.1614 Monday, LSEG data show, driven by reduced U.S. interest rate rise expectations. ING expects it the euro to trade in a $1.1520-$1.1580 range Tuesday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0811 GMT - South Korean shipping company HMM's earnings could come under pressure, as the global container shipping market is expected to face worsening oversupply from 2027, KB Securities' Kang Seong-jin and Kim Ji-yun say. Fears that fleet supply could exceed cargo demand through 2029 are weighing on investor sentiment, the analysts write in a note. Container ships scheduled for delivery amount to 3.31 million twenty-foot equivalent units in 2027, 5.25 million TEUs in 2028 and 3.78 million TEUs in 2029, they add. That would be equivalent to 9.8%, 15.6% and 11.2%, respectively, of the current global container fleet's total capacity. KB expects HMM's operating profit to fall 23% this year. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Sterling could extend its losses after data Tuesday showed the U.K. jobs market remains cool and wage pressures subdued, suggesting little impetus for the Bank of England to raise interest rates this year, ING's Chris Turner says. Money markets continue to price 60 basis points of BOE rate rises into next year, LSEG data show. "That should slowly be priced out over the next three to six months, although energy prices will have a big say on timing," Turner says in a note. The July U.K. inflation report is due Wednesday where a lower services number would also argue against rate rises, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8556 pounds and ING sees it potentially reaching 0.8570-0.8580. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0749 GMT - Equinor's deal to acquire 87.7% of the Lackawanna gas-fired power plant in Pennsylvania for $940 million increases the company's exposure to the rapidly growing U.S. electricity market, SB1 Markets analyst Teodor Sveen-Nilsen writes. The deal strengthens Equinor's integrated power strategy by combining power generation with its own significant gas operations in the Appalachian Mountains, he says. The market is supported by rising demand from electrification, data centers and industrial operations, he adds. "We view the acquisition of Lackawanna as neutral to positive, but believe that the Equinor share is fully valued unless a long-term oil price of $85-$90 per barrel is assumed." The bank reiterates its neutral rating on the stock with a 365 Norwegian kroner target price. Shares rise 1.6% to 394.20 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0742 GMT - The Japanese yen falls to a two-and-a-half-week low against the dollar as oil prices rise on renewed concerns about U.S.-Iran tensions. President Trump said he isn't seeking an extension of the 60-day U.S. ceasefire with Iran which expired Monday. He also threatened to bomb Oman as he claimed the Gulf nation might be standing in the way of a peace deal. Low foreign-exchange market volatility continues to weigh on the yen as this boosts demand for carry trades, where investors borrow in a low-yielding currency to invest in a higher-yielding one, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar rises as high as 159.77 yen, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0734 GMT - Brent crude rises above $90 a barrel as prospects for a near-term peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fade. In early European trading, the global oil benchmark is up 0.1% to $91.04 a barrel, while WTI futures gain 0.5% to $84.95 a barrel. "President Trump indicated little interest in extending the expired agreement with Iran, while major differences remain over Hormuz," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Meanwhile, shipping security risks remain. Yemen's Iranian-allied Houthi rebels are escalating attacks along the country's Red Sea coast, pushing closer to the key Bab al-Mandeb Strait. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0734 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb, tracking rises in Treasurys and other developed-market peers, due to increasing concerns about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict. Fears about extended energy-supply shocks and high oil prices are intensifying inflation worries. This causes markets to expect that central banks could have to raise interest rates and raises concerns about potential long-term economic damage. U.K. 30-year gilt yields hit a 3-month high of 5.848%, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields hit a 3.5-week high of 5.095%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0728 GMT - Bitcoin falls slightly as concerns about persistent tensions between the U.S. and Iran dent risk sentiment. President Trump said he is not seeking an extension of the 60-day U.S. ceasefire with Iran which expired Monday. He also threatened to bomb Oman as he claimed the Gulf nation might be standing in the way of a peace deal. Bitcoin falls 0.2% to $64,261, LSEG data show. Bitcoin holding near $64,000 despite geopolitical pressure, exchange-traded fund outflows and crypto regulatory uncertainty signals improving resilience, although it doesn't yet prove institutional demand has fully returned, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0708 GMT - The German 10-year Bund yield rises to a 15-year high of 3.249% in opening trade, as eurozone government bond yields increase together with U.S. Treasury yields. Rising U.S. government spending, pointing to a challenging fiscal outlook, are a key factor behind higher Treasury yields. Additionally, yields rise as a lack of progress towards a resolution in the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps oil prices high, intensifying inflationary pressures. "Progress towards normalising tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stalled, and Trump's threat of military action against Oman added to tensions," Danske's Filip Andersson says in a note. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0656 GMT - The dollar recovers slightly as oil prices rise after President Trump said he is not seeking an extension of the U.S. ceasefire with Iran which expired Monday. Trump also threatened to bomb Oman if the Gulf nation "gets in the way." The news provides some support to the dollar due to its safe-haven role and America's position as a net energy exporter. It also increases the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. However, markets are no longer fully pricing a rate rise by year-end after recent weak data. The recent scaling back of rate-rise bets sent the DXY dollar index to a 10-week low of 99.294 Monday. The index is last up 0.1% at 99.673. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0632 GMT - Artificial-intelligence data centers are expected to move closer to adopting 800V direct-current power systems as demand for more powerful AI chips continues to rise, according to a Digitimes Research report. Although Nvidia isn't expected to introduce major power-related changes in 2026, power semiconductor suppliers are already rolling out products designed for future AI server platforms. Digitimes analyst Chiayang Yao says the transition is likely to accelerate with the mass production of Nvidia's Rubin Ultra GPUs in 2027. The report also highlights growing demand for next-generation power technologies that can boost energy efficiency and support higher computing workloads. As 800V systems become more standardized, competition is expected to center on cost, efficiency, power density and supply reliability, Yao says. (jie.yang@wsj.com)

0549 GMT - Rising energy prices amid resilient macro data amplify headwinds for bond markets after key levels were taken out, Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. "While the market has repeatedly been bought before around current levels it is difficult to see a swift change of dynamics in the current environment," the head of rates and credit research says. In late Monday trade, the 10-year Bund yield hit 3.219%, the highest since 2011, according to LSEG data. Commerzbank opts for a defensive stance for now, preferring steepeners. "They can work in both a bullish as well as a moderately bearish setting as central banks need to account for tightening financing conditions from historically high long-end yields," Rieger says.

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