Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/18

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1200 ET - Early pictures of corn ears being pulled in Ohio are generally strong -- with many scouts taking to X under the #pftour26 hashtag to exhibit how fields and corn ears look this morning. Most of the pictured specimens look strong, relatively thick for their age and matured past the pollination stage. This is more evident in the eastern fields - although excessive rain may introduce issues on the east side of the Corn Belt. CBOT corn and soybeans are both higher, with corn up 1.1% and soybeans up 1.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1117 ET - A weaker U.S. dollar is giving gold futures support. The dollar movement appears to be a reflection of recent softer-than-expected macroeconomic reports. "We have had a couple of soft inflation reports along with weaker employment and retail sales data and this has led to more dovish expectations of the Fed with important asset price impacts," says Stephen Coltman of 21shares in a note. As part of the movement gold is now "showing signs of life," says Coltman. Most-active gold futures are up 0.9% to $4,474.50 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1030 ET - U.S. field crops that were planted this spring and grown this summer are now reaching maturity. "We turn to the back-half of August and for the athletes it's the final few minutes of the game, not much can change from here on out--what the crops are, they are," says Joe Davis of Futures International. This week's Pro Farmer Crop Tour will show what these mostly-baked crops look like, with the western portion of the tour starting in South Dakota and the eastern side starting from Ohio. CBOT corn is up 0.5%, while soybeans climb 0.9%. Wheat is down 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1013 ET - Most-active cattle futures on the CME rise 1.4% and hogs climb 0.8%. Last week was a negative one for both livestock contracts, with cattle Friday dipping to its lowest since late last year. "The technical picture doesn't look all that healthy, we'll likely need some stabilization in the cash feeder and cash fat markets this week to help calm the waters," says StoneX in a note. The Labor Day holiday is often a source of an improved outlook for U.S. meat, but this August has been quiet in terms of demand. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1008 ET - The Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week is expected to survey a mostly healthy crop across the Corn Belt, which is seen as keeping CBOT grain futures mostly rangebound. "There is a big crop out there to limit upside while strong demand is expected to support on pull-backs," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives, in reference to corn--with soybeans showing a similar situation. The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed fund traders adding short positions to corn and soybean futures for the week ended Aug. 11. Corn is up 0.3%, while soybeans rise 0.6% and wheat falls 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0926 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower after weekend weather forecasts shed some near-term heat, with the demand impact offset in part by recovering LNG feedgas flows. "While buried under production and weather headlines, strengthening LNG demand--if sustained--may help natural gas find support," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Higher supply over the next few weeks and cooler weather may mark a seasonal low for Nymex gas futures before they recover in the autumn." Gas for September delivery is off 2.2% at $2.672/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0918 ET - It's the beginning of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, which commands the attention of traders and analysts. The Hightower Report says in a note that crop scouts "will encounter muddy conditions from Iowa eastward through Ohio." The western portion of the tour, which begins in South Dakota, is expected to encounter more dry conditions, while the eastern side may be wetter and muddier. CBOT grain futures are mixed premarket, with most-active corn up 0.4%, soybeans rising 0.5%, and wheat down 0.7%. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues until Thursday, with crop scouts traveling through seven different Corn Belt states. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0854 ET - Oil futures are moderately higher as President Trump tells Fox News he's in no hurry to resolve the conflict with Iran. Traders also await additional U.S. economic measures against Iran. "It appears to me that the U.S. is looking to starve the Iranians as their answer to this crisis more and more," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. That policy could make it even harder for China to keep refinery run rates at their current level and make the diesel crisis worse, he adds. WTI is up 0.7% at $83.01 a barrel and Brent is up 0.9% at $89.34. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0749 ET - Escalating hostilities between Russia and Ukraine threaten to raise global food prices further, Oxford Economics' Tatiana Orlova says in a note. Global food prices are expected to increase by 11.8% this year and 4.8% in 2027, she says. "But given that Russia is the largest grain exporter globally and Ukraine is the fifth largest, the recent escalation of fighting in the Azov and Black Sea basin could result in a more severe global food price shock." Alternative routes for exports developed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 will help mitigate the damage, but they could be targeted by strikes, Orlova says. Moreover, shipping via the River Danube is hindered by the current drought and low water levels, she adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0620 ET - Nestle's key growth indicators wouldn't take a hit if its Russian business was removed from the group, analysts at Barclays say in a note. Barclays analysts point to a report in Russian newspaper Kommersant about the possibility of Nestle's Russian entities being transferred to state management--a reminder that companies operating in Russia continue to face risks, the analysts write. Key metrics would not be impacted as the operation has been excluded from real internal growth and organic growth measurements since 2022, the analysts add. Nestle hasn't been contacted by Russian federal authorities on this matter, a spokesperson said. Nestle shares are down 2.1% at 79.32 Swiss francs. (aimee.look@wsj.com)

0659 ET - Palm oil ended higher, as the July Malaysian Palm Oil Board report showed growth in both production and demand in origin countries, noted Nanhua Futures. Prices are likely to find some support as valuation drops, alongside its previous pullback and long-term supply contraction, they say. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery rose 12 ringgit to 4,819 ringgit a ton, according to LSEG. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0441 ET - Copper continues to rally as supply concerns mount. In the morning trade, 3-month LME prices are 0.7% higher at $14,264 a metric ton. The rise comes as LME inventories fell for a 42nd consecutive session to 204,975 tons, which is their lowest level since February, ING analysts write. Copper continues to flow to the U.S. and China, where the industrial metal trades at a premium. At the same time, Chile expects copper production to fall 2.6% this year, which is heightening supply concerns, they say.

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