Gold is having a moment again. And if it stays this hot, it could do better than the stock market this year.

The yellow metal traded at roughly $4,460 on Monday, nearly 13% higher than this year's settlement low of $3,992.10 on June 16. Before then, the price hadn't dipped below $4,000 since late last year. For the year, though, gold is up about 3%.

Still, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Private Bank are both bullish on the commodity.

Goldman analysts reiterated their year-end price target of $4,900, in large part because of massive buys by China, Poland, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.

"We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multiyear trend, as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks," they wrote.

Goldman's price target would be a 13% gain from where the precious metal started the year. For comparison, the S&P 500 is up 13% for the year.

Whether gold catches the S&P 500 depends not only on the central bank buys but also on inflation. Prices need to keep inching down.

The Goldman analysts noted that signs of inflation moderating could keep the Federal Reserve from moving on interest rates this year.

They added that "the headwind from markets pricing Fed hikes...has eased" after the Fed's last meeting, in July, and a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.

Gold should glow more if the central bank does hold rates steady since it tends to lose value with rate hikes.

Here's essentially why: Rate hikes lead to higher bond yields, which make bonds more attractive than gold as a hedge. And higher rates strengthen the U.S. dollar, which also lessen gold's appeal.

The strategists at J.P. Morgan Private Bank are bullish because gold is close to bottoming out and "a more durable rebound" should come once the bond market is confident that real yields have peaked.

J.P. Morgan has a price target of $4,850 to $5,150 by the middle of next year.

"We remain bullish on gold over the medium term and expect its safe-haven characteristics to re-emerge as market narratives shift from inflation risks toward growth concerns," the strategists wrote.

So there it is. Gold is back, at least for now.