Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/20

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

2213 ET - While BlueScope Steel is delivering good cost savings, Macquarie questions what will drive its stock from here. "U.S. conditions are as good as they get," while conditions in Australia and New Zealand are weak, Macquarie says. BlueScope's execution is strong and the prospect of capital returns is attractive, "however we think these factors are largely discounted" in the steelmaker's share price, it says. The bank trims its target on the stock to A$34.35 from A$35.95 and downgrades to neutral from outperform. Shares are up 2.5% at A$32.29. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2205 ET - BHP could be expected to take "a more cash flow-oriented approach" to dividends ahead, as commodity prices trade above long-term averages, Macquarie says. BHP has a policy of paying a minimum of 50% of underlying profit at every reporting period. The miner surprised with a final dividend of US$0.99/share, a 72% payout ratio. Macquarie attributes the beat--22% higher than consensus--to stronger free cash flow and proceeds from a silver-streaming deal. The bank raises its target on BHP by roughly 6% to 58.50 Australian dollars a share. It reiterates a neutral rating. Shares are down 0.1% at A$63.81 following a 2.7% gain Tuesday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2128 ET - Citi thinks there's a modest downside risk to FY 2027 earnings and cash-flow forecasts for Evolution Mining. That reflects higher-than-anticipated guidance on costs and capex, it says. It could be partially offset by stronger gold prices, Citi says. The bank also notes that Evolution's copper-price assumptions for the year ahead are lower than its own. Citi has a neutral rating on Evolution, with a A$13.70/share target. The stock is up 0.2% at A$13.67. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2113 ET - While Evolution Mining raised its final dividend by 62% to a record high, "the market was looking for more," says Macquarie. The FY payout of 41 Australian cents a share, while a 2% beat versus Macquarie's expectations, is a 5% miss to consensus, the bank notes. FY27 guidance is also soft due to lower-than-anticipated forecast copper output and higher-than-anticipated all-in sustaining costs, it says. Macquarie has a neutral rating and A$11.50/share target on Evolution. Shares are up 0.6% at A$13.73, after initially falling as low as A$13.16. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2053 ET - Whitehaven Coal's annual profit misses expectations due to slightly lower revenue, inventory movement, and higher depreciation and amortization, Barrenjoey says. Underlying profit of 227 million Australian dollars is 8% below consensus and 15% lower than Barrenjoey's forecast. The coal miner's FY dividend of A$0.10/share is 3% below consensus but in line with Barrenjoey's expectations. "FY27 guidance provided with volumes a touch soft, unit cost in line but capex lower, which may see consensus earnings and cash flow downgrades," says Barrenjoey. The bank has a neutral rating and A$7.50/share target on Whitehaven. Shares are down 3.1% at A$7.52. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2037 ET - Gold gains in early Asian trade, recouping some losses caused by Tuesday's global bond rout. The precious metal moves towards $4,400 a troy ounce as weaker labor data and a softer inflation print helped ease expectations for rate increases by the Federal Reserve, say ANZ Research analysts. Physical demand, particularly from China, together with steady central bank buying, continues to underpin the market, they add. Spot gold is up 0.2% at $4,341.94 an ounce.

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