The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0534 GMT - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is likely to argue for reducing the Fed's use of forward guidance, which he views as a source of past policy mistakes, Barclays rates strategists say in a note. At the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium at Jackson Hole between Aug. 27 and Aug. 29, Warsh may also provide insights on balance sheet policy, they say. They also expect Warsh to emphasize long-run drivers of the economy, particularly productivity trends and their effects on potential growth. Warsh is unlikely to provide near-term policy guidance, but markets will look for clarity on how the FOMC intends to return inflation to the 2% goal, the strategists say. Warsh is more likely than not to affirm that rate hikes are possible if inflation fails to improve. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0534 GMT - The U.S. Dollar Index remained heavy near 98.8 points in Asia, says Samara Hammoud, foreign-exchange strategist at CBA. Concerns about U.S. fiscal dominance, the sustainability of government debt, and U.S. dollar debasement appear set to continue to weigh on the currency this week, she adds. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has raised expectations that a budget consolidation program will be released this week. However, the poor experience with DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, in 2025 illustrates how difficult it is to rein in government spending or raise taxes, Hammoud adds. A modest consolidation would disappoint market expectations and further weigh on the U.S. dollar, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0523 GMT - The recent rise in commodity prices can't serve as the sole explanation for the latest decline in bond prices, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. A key factor contributing to this assessment is the observation that most upward pressure on yields on both sides of the Atlantic was concentrated in the long-term segments, the senior fixed income analyst says. A clear trend toward rising term premiums has continued in recent days, apparently on a global scale, he says. The yield on the 10-year German Bund exceeded 3.25% for the first time since early summer 2011 and this can't be explained solely by growing fears of inflation, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0523 GMT - The German 10-year Bund yield has already reached Societe Generale rates strategists' fourth-quarter target of 3.25%, but this isn't the end of the selloff, they say in a note. "Term premium rebuilding still has a long way to go, with the 10-year Bund term premium remaining well below pre-QE [quantitative easing] levels," they say. This keeps Societe Generale's 3.40% mid-2027 target firmly in place and leaves the 3.60-3.75% range increasingly plausible by late 2027, they say. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.25% on Friday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0517 GMT - The U.S. Treasury's decision last week to increase buybacks of long-end securities, alongside other recent Treasury actions, is a signal that the U.S. Treasury is uncomfortable with current yield levels, J.P. Morgan analysts say in a note. "Absent genuine fiscal consolidation, however, we doubt such measures can deliver a durable decline in yields and could actually lift term premium if U.S. Treasury issuance becomes more opportunistic and less predictable," they say. With risks of a further U.S. selloff, thin summer liquidity and persistently high energy prices, J.P. Morgan analysts prefer to remain cautious on European duration. They close longs in 10-year Bunds but keep the cross-market longs versus U.S. Treasurys and remain neutral on U.K. gilts.