達利歐：美國三年內或現債務危機建議配置黃金降低投資風險

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橋水基金創始人瑞·達利歐（Ray Dalio）最新觀點認為，美國三年內或將迎來債務危機。　　當地時間8月21日，達利歐在其個人網站發表題為《國家如何走向破產：當下變局背後的內在邏輯》（How Countries Go Broke： The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now）的文章。他指出，美國財政部長貝森特本周宣佈的債務回購計劃，或預示危機臨近。　　...

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14:25","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2661255932","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"達利歐：美國三年內或現債務危機 建議配置黃金降低投資風險","media":"澎湃新聞","content":"<div>\n<p>橋水基金創始人瑞·達利歐（Ray Dalio）最新觀點認為，美國三年內或將迎來債務危機。\n　　當地時間8月21日，達利歐在其個人網站發表題為《國家如何走向破產：當下變局背後的內在邏輯》（How Countries Go Broke： The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now）的文章。他指出，美國財政部長貝森特本周宣佈的債務回購計劃，或預示危機臨近。\n\n　　...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-24/doc-inipkzxs1948860.shtml\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>達利歐：美國三年內或現債務危機 建議配置黃金降低投資風險</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-24/doc-inipkzxs1948860.shtml\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-24/doc-inipkzxs1948860.shtml\">澎湃新聞</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BTGD","symbol_name":"STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-24/doc-inipkzxs1948860.shtml","article_id":"2661255932","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-08-24/doc-inipkzxs1948860.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, 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Dalio）最新觀點認為，美國三年內或將迎來債務危機。\n　　當地時間8月21日，達利歐在其個人網站發表題為《國家如何走向破產：當下變局背後的內在邏輯》（How Countries Go Broke： The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now）的文章。他指出，美國財政部長貝森特本周宣佈的債務回購計劃，或預示危機臨近。\n\n　　達利歐稱，美國政府今年的總收入大概是5.5萬億美元，而總支出約為7.5萬億美元，預算缺口達到約兩萬億美元。同時由於美國政府長期靠借債度日，目前的債務餘額已經達到約32萬億美元（注：不計入政府間債務），相當於年收入的6倍，這些債務每年的利息超過1萬億美元。\n　　「我確信，美國政府的財政狀況正處於一個轉折點。」達利歐寫道，如果現在不加以解決，債務將會累積到難以承受的地步，造成巨大的經濟創傷。尤其重要的是，這項行動必須在經濟體系相對穩健的時候進行，而不是在經濟疲軟的時候。\n　　在達利歐看來，美國債務問題正在從一個長期存在的結構性風險，逐漸轉變為一個需要政策當局正面處理的現實問題。\n　　達利歐預測，如果美國不想辦法改變現狀，債務危機「可能在三年內爆發，上下浮動兩年左右」。\n　　達利歐進一步指出，要延遲甚至解決債務問題，美國需要「三管齊下」，通過削減開支、增加税收以及降低利率等措施，將目前的預算赤字從約6%降至國內生產總值的3%。\n　　「三者需同時進行，以防任何一項幅度過大，」達利歐表示，否則，過度削減支出、過度增加税收或人為壓低利率，都可能帶來嚴重的經濟衝擊。\n　　鑑於眼下並非只有美國面臨債務問題，達利歐預計大多數經濟體都會經歷類似的債務和貨幣貶值調整過程， 「這也是為什麼我預計黃金和比特幣等非政府發行的貨幣會表現相對較好。」\n　　在投資層面，達利歐建議投資者分散投資於那些收入狀況和資產負債表穩健、內部政治和外部地緣政治衝突不嚴重的資產類別和國家，同時減持債券等債務資產，增持黃金和少量比特幣。\n　　「將總資產的一小部分，約10%‑15%配置黃金，不僅可以降低投資組合的整體風險，我認為還能夠提升組合收益。」達利歐補充道。\n　　達利歐發表此番言論之際，正值美國金融市場動盪的一周。國債收益率上升給股市帶來壓力，標普500指數也因此承壓。黃金則在周五觸及三個月以來新高，現貨黃金重新站上4600美元/盎司關口，連續第三周收漲。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}

達利歐：美國三年內或現債務危機 建議配置黃金降低投資風險

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達利歐：美國三年內或現債務危機建議配置黃金降低投資風險