Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/21

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0940 GMT - U.S. stocks linked to cryptocurrencies continue to rise premarket, spurred higher by a surge in bitcoin and ethereum. Investors are increasingly confident in the regulatory outlook for crypto in the U.S., even if the crypto-friendly Clarity Act doesn't pass, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani writes. "The industry expects accelerated rule making for supporting native crypto tokens, tokenized equities, perpetual futures" and other crypto-related activities, Chhugani says. Bitcoin trades up 6.6% at $77,794.84, while ethereum adds 2.7% at $2,389.07. Bitcoin-hoarder Strategy jumps 9.3% premarket, on pace to rise by over 30% since market close Tuesday. Crypto exchanges also gain, with Coinbase and Hyperliquid Strategies rising 6.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Robinhood Markets adds 5.1%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0926 GMT - The U.S. dollar falls, hovering near a three-month low, while Treasury yields turn slightly lower. The U.S. Treasury's plan announced Wednesday to double buybacks of long-dated debt caused yields and the dollar to drop. However, the impact on Treasurys was temporary while the dollar remains weak. Expectations that U.S. interest rates could be left on hold over the short term could continue to weigh on the dollar as well, Eleonex's Stefan Arsenovic says in a note. The DXY dollar falls 0.3% to 98.593, just shy of Thursday's three-month low of 98.557. The 10-year Treasury falls 1 basis point to 4.687%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0900 GMT - U.K. government borrowing continues to drift off course, says Dennis Tatarkov, senior economist at KPMG U.K. Public-sector net borrowing was 1.8 billion pounds in July, up from 1.1 billion pounds a year ago. The gap between projected and actual borrowing since the start of the fiscal year in April has remained at around GBP2.3 billion, he says. "Stronger self-assessment tax receipts, typical for July, was not enough to put the public sector borrowing back on track this fiscal year." Measures to help with the cost of living pledged by the new Andy Burnham administration are likely to keep near-term borrowing elevated, Tatarkov says. Yet, the market's appetite for more debt is limited, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - The German 10-year Bund yield trades steady after a weaker-than-expected print of flash estimate August PMI data, having earlier traded marginally higher. The composite flash estimate PMI was 51.0, below analysts' consensus expectation of 51.5 in The Wall Street Journal's poll. However, the reading remained above 50, signalling an expansion in activity. Manufacturing was stronger, though services activity unexpectedly contracted. The 10-year Bund yield was 0.2 basis points lower at 3.245% after the release, according to Tradeweb data. The euro is little changed after the data, last up 0.1% at $1.1695. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0728 GMT - The idea that Washington has chosen a buyback of long-term debt instead of changing its fiscal trajectory and slowing debt growth, while exerting increasing pressure on Federal Reserve policy, will likely only reinforce the de-dollarization trade that is already in place, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Foreign entities like central banks, finance ministries and sovereign wealth funds' aggregate holdings of U.S. Treasurys fell to some 12% from roughly 40% during and after the subprime crisis, leaving the market increasingly reliant on price-sensitive private investors, she adds. The latest news could further reinforce that loss of confidence, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0727 GMT - The 10-year French government bond, or OAT, yield trims its rise after a weaker-than-expected flash estimate purchasing managers' index reading for August. The composite flash PMI came in at 48.8, below analysts' consensus expectation of 49.4 in The Wall Street Journal's poll. The 10-year OAT yield is last up 0.3 basis points on the day at 4.109% after the data, versus 4.115%, up 0.9 basis points beforehand, according to Tradeweb. The euro shows little reaction, last trading up 0.1% against a broadly weaker dollar at $1.1692. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0719 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, rise slightly after data showed the U.K. posted an unexpected budget deficit in July. The Office for National Statistics said the government had a budget deficit of 1.8 billion pounds ($2.45 billion), an increase of 700 million pounds from July 2025. An increase in spending more than offset record revenues from income taxes. Retail sales were also weak, falling by 0.5% month-on-month in July, more than the 0.4% fall forecast by economists in a WSJ poll. U.K. purchasing managers' data for August are due at 0830 GMT. The 10-year gilt yield rises 1.4 basis points to 5.053%, increasing by slightly more than eurozone and U.S. peers. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0707 GMT - Sterling remains weak against the euro, staying not far from Thursday's three-week low after data revealed U.K. public finances deteriorated more than expected while retail sales were weak. The U.K. government borrowed more in July than a year earlier as an increase in spending more than offset record revenues from income taxes. Retail sales fell by 0.5% on month in July, more than the 0.4% fall forecast by economists in a WSJ poll. "The second half of the year so far looks far from being smooth sailing," Ebury's Phil Monkhouse says in a note. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8569 pounds, staying near a three-week high of 0.8585. Sterling rises 0.1% against a broadly stronger dollar to $1.1696. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0653 GMT - Bitcoin rises around 4% to a 12-week high of $75,681, according to LSEG data. The cryptocurrency is boosted by a combination of regulatory momentum, institutional spot demand, lower-yield expectations and forced short covering, Zaye Capital Markets' Naeem Aslam says in a note. President Trump has urged lawmakers to pass a "fair version" of the Clarity Act, a proposed U.S. federal bill aimed to create a clear legal framework for crypto currencies and digital assets. "That materially changes the regulatory risk premium surrounding bitcoin because clearer rules can make banks, asset managers and corporations more comfortable allocating capital to the sector, while the possibility of additional sovereign holdings strengthens bitcoin's scarcity narrative," Aslam says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0647 GMT - Singapore's consumer-price index likely rose 2.4% on year in July, up from June's 1.9% rise, according to the median estimate of six economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Core CPI, which excludes private road transport and accommodation, could have risen 2.2% in July, higher than June's 1.6% increase, according to the poll. Prices likely rose mainly due to the increase in electricity and tariffs last month, says Moody's Analytics economist Denise Cheok in an email. Electricity and town gas tariffs for households are rising by 17% and 7.1%, respectively, from July to September. Inflation is likely to remain elevated in 2H, as higher energy costs start to spillover into other sectors, she adds. The data are due Monday.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0647 GMT - Interest costs on U.S. public debt have increased by 15% to $1.17 trillion over the fiscal year to July in part reflecting higher Treasury yields, says Carol Kong, FX strategist at CBA. There appears to be little appetite in the Trump administration for meaningful budget consolidation. CBA expects long-dated Treasury yields to remain under upward pressure, further increasing borrowing costs and adding to public debt. This risks creating a feedback loop, whereby rising debt and servicing costs prompt investors to demand even higher yields, Kong says.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0641 GMT - The DXY Index remained around 98.8 points during the Asian session, but its outlook remains weak amid concerns about U.S. debt, say Carol Kong, FX strategist at CBA. The U.S. 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has already retraced most of its decline triggered by the buyback, she adds. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent has flagged a fiscal consolidation announcement expected early next week. Long says she remains sceptical that any measures announced will materially alter the U.S. debt trajectory or ease upward pressure on long-dated yields.

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