The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2159 ET - Soft New Zealand 2Q retail sales data could limit further interest-rate increases by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, says Yen Nguyen, economist at ASB. With plenty of headwinds, expect consumer spending to be moderate throughout the second half of 2026, with a meaningful recovery in consumer activity likely delayed until 2027, he says. The softness in consumer spending outlook poses some downside risk to ASB's forecast for a peak in the official cash rate at 3.25%, Nguyen adds. But at this stage, ASB is sticking with its forecast. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

2126 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar, but may be supported by worries over U.S. national debt, which exceeded $40 trillion for the first time. "Concerns about the sustainability of government debt can weigh on the USD this week," CBA Global Economic & Markets Research says in a research report. "U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent raised expectations of a budget consolidation program to be released this week," CBA says. "A modest consolidation would disappoint the hopes of market participants and weaken the USD," the bank adds. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 158.87 yen and is flat at 1.2693 Singapore dollars, while the Australian dollar is steady at US$0.7168, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2038 ET - JGBs fall in early Tokyo session, tracking Friday's price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. However, investors may adopt a wait-and-see stance before possible comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent later today. "Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference today, which could be important for both the Treasury and geopolitical outlook," Commerzbank Research analysts say in a note. "Markets will seek further details on the Treasury's expanded bond-buyback programme and whether additional measures will be considered to address elevated long-term yields," the analysts add. JGB 10-year yield is up 1.5 bps at 2.890%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2013 ET - The Nikkei Stock Average edged 0.3% higher to 66212.61, tracking Wall Street's gains on Friday. Japanese stocks swung between mild gains and losses as investors digested the U.S.-Canada trade spat. Late Friday, talks between the two countries to reach a deal collapsed at the 11th hour, spurring prospects that the dispute between neighbors with almost $900 billion-a-year trading relationship could become an all-out trade war. Among best performers on Japan's benchmark index, JX Advanced Metals rose 3.3%, Screen Holdings added 3.1%, and BayCurrent advanced 3.0%. The dollar is at 158.85 yen, compared with Y158.50 around Friday's Tokyo market close. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1943 ET - Japanese stocks may consolidate as investors digest the U.S.-Canada trade spat. Late Friday, talks between the two countries to reach a deal collapsed at the 11th hour, spurring prospects that the dispute between neighbors with almost $900 billion-a-year trading relationship could become an all-out trade war. Nikkei futures opened 5 points lower at 66060 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.97 yen, compared with Y158.50 around Friday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.3% lower at 66016.36 on Friday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1908 ET - Skellerup's FY26 result contained a positive surprise for Forsyth Barr. Strong operating cash flow reduced net debt to almost zero. "While capex is expected to remain elevated over the medium term as Skellerup renews its injection-moulding fleet at Wigram, it retains ample balance sheet headroom to support further organic or inorganic growth initiatives," analyst Rohan Koreman-Smit says. Skellerup continues to investigate in-market U.S. manufacturing. That would unlock capacity at Wigram to grow more in Asian markets. Still, new U.S. manufacturing likely would come at a higher cost. Forsyth Barr retains a neutral call on Skellerup, which is down 0.1% at NZ$7.39 today. "Skellerup is currently trading on a 12-month forward price-to-earnings of 19.3x, which we view as fair," Forsyth Barr says, citing its robust earnings growth and low debt, among other factors. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1855 ET - SkyCity Entertainment's FY26 result is better than it appears, suggests Forsyth Barr. SkyCity reported FY26 normalized Ebitda of NZ$182 million. That was near the bottom of guidance, which the casino operator had recently downgraded. "While the result appears underwhelming, we think the recent Middle East disruption and weaker discretionary spending mask a meaningful improvement in SkyCity's underlying business," says analyst Paul Laxton Koraua. Firstly, 2H Ebitda represented the first sequential rise in earnings since 1H23. Secondly, the sale of the Auckland office buildings and the Grand Hotel should reset debt below 2x Ebitda, Forsyth Barr says. Another positive: a heads of agreement has been reached on the Adelaide regulatory fine. It retains an outperform call on SkyCity, which is up 8.3% at NZ$0.655 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1844 ET - The approaching U.S. fiscal update from Treasury and a Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers provide two major policy updates with important implications for financial markets this week, says Brian Martin, head of G3 economics at ANZ. With U.S. government debt now in excess of $40 trillion, debt interest payments account for 15% of public expenditure, he adds. Curbing the growth in the debt is a necessity and it will be interesting to hear how Treasury plans to do this. If both the fiscal and monetary updates fail to reassure markets, a period of financial market volatility could lie ahead, Martin adds.