Five Below Stock Looks Like a Winner for Back to School-and Beyond

Dow Jones
08/21

Rumi, Zoey, and Mira, the animated pop-star stars of Netflix's KPop Demon Hunters, do everything "for the fans." Five Below has adopted a similar philosophy, and it could drive the retailer's stock up, up, up.

It's Five Below's moment. Back-to-school season seems to be going well, and the stores are well-positioned for Halloween and Christmas, too. "Store presentation looks as good, if not better, than ever with summer product resonating exceptionally well," writes Mizuho Securities analyst David Bellinger. He raised his price target on the stock to $260 from $220 on Aug. 10, pointing to a potential 10% gain from a recent $236.

That would continue a stellar run for Five Below. While the stock is flat over the past five years, it has quadrupled from its April 2025 lows. Its Wall Street fan base is also growing: Only 56% of analysts rated it a Buy June, per FactSet data; now, 69% do.

One recent convert is Jefferies' Randal Konik, who upped his rating to buy on Aug. 13. He notes that while recent growth has been attributed to the company's strong positioning in the squishy dumplings trend (ask your local third-grader), "this overlooks the structural improvements in the business."

In a series of follow-up notes-many peppered with vaguely creepy, slant-angled pics of toys on shelves-Konik finds that back-to-school products have sold out, and holiday sales could "surprise to the upside."

Indeed, the stores are packed with an enticing mix of essentials and trendy toys, including plenty of KPop Demon Hunters merch, Walt Disney's popular characters du jour (welcome back, Marie from The Aristocats), and enough superheros to stock an Eternals sequel. "FIVE's ability to secure relevant, trend-right IP remains an underappreciated competitive advantage that is difficult for most value-oriented retailers to replicate," Konik says.

At 25 times forward earnings, its valuation is perhaps a bit rich-and notably above those of competitors like Dollar General and Target. But what kid gets excited about a trip to the dollar store?

 

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