The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0518 GMT - The annual gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole has, at times, been the stage for major shifts in Fed policy guidance, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, strategist at Swissquote. It will be Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chairman, at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above target and long-term yields have been under pressure, she says. Investors are questioning how the Fed will respond to Treasury's intervention in the bond market, which could interfere with the Fed's policy path. Warsh must say something, and what he says--or doesn't say--will probably move the market, potentially in a considerable way, she adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0515 GMT - Schroders remains tactically positive on government bonds, with higher real yields creating more attractive valuations, it says in a note. The backdrop to this view is its confidence that central banks will be able to tackle inflation. "We retain confidence in central banks' ability to navigate policy appropriately and see duration as a useful complement to our pro-cyclical positioning." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0515 GMT - Steeper government bond yield curve are likely to be a durable feature of the rates landscape, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. "Despite mild spot inflation news, ongoing energy volatility and the AI borrowing boom are keeping G-10 bonds under pressure, especially at the long end of the curve," they say. The analysts anticipate that the inflation and fiscal drivers of higher term premium--additional yield that investors seek to buy a longer-dated bond rather than a shorter-dated one--will prove persistent. "We think high and sticky term premium can coexist with lower rates volatility," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0510 GMT - The current Jackson Hole symposium is "one of the more meaningful" gatherings in some time, Catalyst Funds' Larry Holzenthaler says in a note. The senior portfolio manager attributes this to an "interesting storyline." Inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve's target, deficits are becoming a renewed focus, while the market fears that new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is biased toward lowering rates, the portfolio manager says. In addition, there has been "quite a high" dissent rate at the Fed recently, and Warsh's last comments weren't well received by the market, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0508 GMT - The U.S. Treasury's decision last week to double long-end bond buybacks to at least $4 billion from $2 billion is an attempt to engineer lower long-dated yields, Impax Asset Management's Ross Pamphilon says, questioning whether it is necessary. "The 30-year reached a 19-year high above 5.30% last week, but a high yield is not the same thing as a broken market, and we do not see a liquidity problem that warrants intervention," the fixed income CIO says in a note. "The buybacks are also a drop in the ocean relative to $40 trillion of total public debt," he says, adding that the buybacks don't create duration buyers and may prove to be temporary band-aids.