European Midday Briefing: Stocks Recover; Jackson Hole Symposium in Focus

Dow Jones
08/28

MARKET WRAPS

European shares were building on Thursday's session and were on track to end this trading week on a high note, as investors on both sides of the Atlantic await Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech in Wyoming later.

European indexes rallied at the opening bell. Luxury stocks in Paris were gaining with Hermes topping the CAC 40. In London, miners gained, defense companies fell, and auto stocks rose in Frankfurt.

This year's annual Jackson Hole conference is seen by some analysts as "one of the more meaningful" in some time as inflation remains above the Fed's target, deficits are a renewed focus, and amidst fears Warsh is biased toward lowering rates, Catalyst Funds said.

The conference has previously presided over major shifts in Fed policy guidance and what Warsh today says, or doesn't say, has the potential to move the market in a considerable way, according to Swissquote.

Given his aversion to forward guidance, there is a risk markets judge his comments as insufficiently forceful on inflation and, in that scenario, the dollar can fall.

Approaching midday the FTSE 100, the CAC 40 and the DAX were in positive territory, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up.

Meanwhile, French and Spanish inflation accelerated in August, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank ahead of its September rate decision.

U.S. Markets:

Stocks were poised for a mixed open Friday as futures struggled for direction ahead of Warsh's hotly-anticipated speech.

Forex:

The dollar was flat, awaiting new impetus from the keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later today.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields rose in early trade at a faster pace than their U.S. peers, with the 10-year Bund yield reaching a 15-year high.

"The outlook for bond markets ahead of the weekend is poor. Rising oil prices, higher eurozone inflation, and a hawkish European Central Bank could push 10-year Bund yields to new highs even before [Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin] Warsh's keynote address," Commerzbank said.

Negotiations on the 2027 budget will be a key risk across the eurozone government bond universe, Societe Generale said, adding that the talks could potentially refocus investor attention on fiscal challenges and political uncertainty, including in Italy and Spain. It recommends investors stay bearish on French government bonds, and mildly bullish on Italian and Spanish government bonds.

Schroders remains tactically positive on government bonds, with higher real yields creating more attractive valuations.

"We retain confidence in central banks' ability to navigate policy appropriately and see duration as a useful complement to our pro-cyclical positioning."

Steeper government bond yield curves are likely to be a durable feature of the rates landscape, Goldman Sachs said, anticipating that the inflation and fiscal drivers of higher term premium will prove persistent.

"Despite mild spot inflation news, ongoing energy volatility and the AI borrowing boom are keeping G-10 bonds under pressure, especially at the long end of the curve. We think high and sticky term premium can coexist with lower rates volatility."

Energy:

Oil prices edged lower but traded above midweek lows, as hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded.

The White House has told mediators the U.S. will not return to temporary peace terms agreed with Iran in June.

Metals:

Gold futures remained supported by investors fretting over U.S. fiscal issues, ANZ said. Investors are buying gold as they seek protection from runaway budget deficits and a weaker dollar.

EMEA HEADLINES

Generali Mulling Monte dei Paschi's $10 Billion Takeover Bid for Banca Generali

Italy's Assicurazioni Generali said it is willing to consider a $10.2 billion takeover offer for private bank Banca Generali from rival Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the latest attempt at consolidation in the country's banking sector.

MPS, considered Europe's oldest lender still in operation, last week launched a joint bid for Banca Generali and Banco BPM, offering 6.958 of its own shares for each Banca Generali share to value the bank at 8.72 billion euros ($10.16 billion). It said at the time the bid represented a 10% premium to Banca Generali's share price.

Top White House Aides Were in the Dark on Ratcliffe Russia Trip

John Ratcliffe's diplomatic mission to Russia this week was so sensitive that even some senior White House officials didn't know about it ahead of time.

President Trump personally dispatched the Central Intelligence Agency chief and kept trusted aides and military leaders who normally would have been briefed on the trip in the dark about the message he would deliver to senior Kremlin figures, U.S. officials said.

U.K. Business Confidence Jumps Despite Lingering Energy Shock

U.K. businesses became more upbeat about their prospects in August, a positive sign for the economy as greater confidence could strengthen hiring and investment in the coming months.

Business confidence jumped 4 percentage points to 53%, according to the Lloyds Business Barometer. This marks a second-consecutive increase in sentiment, and the highest reading since March.

Trump Family's New Crypto Bank Is Backed by Abu Dhabi Sheikh

The Abu Dhabi royal sometimes referred to as the "spy sheikh" is a major shareholder backing a new U.S. bank the Trump family's cryptocurrency venture is preparing to launch, according to people familiar with the matter.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan and co-investors are behind an entity that owns the largest stake-49%-in the holding company that World Liberty Financial created to house its banking venture, according to people familiar with the matter. The sheikh last year backed a $500 million investment into World Liberty Financial in exchange for a 49% stake in the company, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

Novo Nordisk Shares Drop as Bank Downgrade Reflects Growth Concerns

Novo Nordisk shares slipped Thursday after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock's rating on concerns over the company's growth potential.

Shares were 3.3% lower in afternoon Copenhagen trade after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to sell from hold and lowered its target price to 265 Danish kroner ($41.32) from 290 kroner.

GLOBAL NEWS

Nvidia Breaks Its Post-Earnings Curse With $442 Billion Day

Concerns about the profitability of artificial-intelligence ventures, convoluted debt deals underpinning data centers, and the future of chip demand had left some on Wall Street worried that the AI trade was petering out. Then Nvidia arrived with a nearly half-trillion-dollar shot in the arm.

The chip maker's otherworldly growth has become so ingrained in Wall Street's psyche that many investors expect the company to beat expectations, leaving shares sliding in six of the past eight post-earnings trading sessions. A big chunk of options traders this week were betting that the stock would fall after Wednesday's quarterly report.

How the AI Investment Craze Is Keeping the Global Economy Afloat

TOKYO-In the past few weeks, Canada and the U.S. have launched a bitter trade war, President Trump has escalated his campaign against Iran and bond yields have surged, kindling fears over higher borrowing costs around the world.

The global economy, to some surprise, has taken it all in its stride.

Trump Administration in Advanced Talks for Stake in Venezuelan Oil Fields

The Trump administration is in advanced talks with Venezuela for the U.S. to take a direct stake in more than a dozen oil fields that house nearly one-third of the country's massive energy reserves.

If the two countries reach a deal, it could pave the way for independent U.S. energy producers to become involved in oil production in the Latin American country, according to people familiar with the matter. Details are still being worked out, and the deal could fall apart, these people said. Axios reported on the talks earlier Thursday.

Death Toll Rises as Rescuers Search for Victims of Nepal Flood

More than 1,500 people are missing and at least 470 people confirmed dead in Nepal and China following Wednesday's flood, as rescue efforts continued.

In Nepal, more than 970 people are missing, including 517 foreigners, said Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority on Friday. The bodies of 469 people had been recovered, according to Nepal Police. Among the missing foreign tourists are around 65 Americans and 180 Indians, according to the Nepal Tourism Board.

Judge Temporarily Blocks New Trump Administration Mail-In Ballot Rules

WASHINGTON-The Trump administration for now can't move forward with rules upending mail-in voting procedures ahead of midterm elections, a federal judge ruled Thursday, a new chapter in what is likely to be fast-moving litigation.

U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani in Massachusetts issued a temporary restraining order that stops the government from implementing the new U.S. Postal Service regulations days before the first ballots are due to go out in some parts of the country.

Judge Rules Trump Administration's Blacklisting of Anthropic Was Unlawful

SAN FRANCISCO-A federal judge ruled late Thursday that the Trump administration violated Anthropic's First Amendment rights by blacklisting the artificial-intelligence company as a supply-chain risk.

U.S. District Judge Rita F. Lin of the Northern District of California mostly sided with Anthropic in her ruling on the company's March lawsuit against the Trump administration, saying the government had erred in its haste to give Anthropic that designation.

Write to pierre.bertrand@wsj.com

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