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What Happened in Markets Today

Kevin Warsh gave a hawkish address without upsetting markets. The Fed Chairman continued to make his case against explicit forward guidance in an address at the Jackson Hole summit. But he also gave his clearest comments yet on how he views the current economy, including lots of concerns about inflation. He said better inflation readings this summer hadn't convinced him the underlying trend was improving, and that current borrowing and lending conditions don't appear restrictive.

Traders dialed up bets on rate hikes. The market-implied likelihood of a rate increase next month rose to around 60% from 35% on Thursday. Bond yields moved higher, especially at the short-end of the curve, with 2-year Treasury yields rising 0.118 percentage point to 4.348%. The rise in long-term yields was milder, with the 10-year yield rising 0.05 percentage point. This suggests earlier fears that Warsh would find himself behind the curve on inflation are fading. Gold fell more than 3%.

Stocks were mildly lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.

Chevron, other U.S. firms near deal to invest billions in Venezuelan oil fields. The U.S. oil major is close to a deal to expand its longstanding operations in the Latin American country, potentially adding two heavy-oil fields to its portfolio in Venezuela, The Wall Street Journal reported. Halliburton, one of the largest U.S. oil-field-services firms, is also in talks to bring its suite of equipment to oil producers in Venezuela.

Markets at a Glance

One Big Story

Is this seemingly unstoppable stock market starting to feel like 1999, when technology stocks went vertical on a wave of speculation? To me, it feels more like 1901.

No, I wasn't around back then. But a look 125 years back in time shows that it was a remarkably similar period, with lessons for today. Gambling fever can burn longer and hotter than most people think-and then end faster than anyone can imagine. Those who refuse to play pay a high price in short-term opportunity cost, but win in the long run.

Some of the similarities are uncanny.

🎥 Heard on the Street's Quick Take

Despite high earnings, Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio is comparatively low. WSJ's Aaron Back explains why.

What's Coming Up

Companies reporting earnings next week include Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks, Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.

There will be a closely watch monthly jobs report on Friday Sept. 4

Be prepared for the trading day ahead-sign up for Markets A.M.

About Us

Markets P.M. catches you up on the day's most important markets moves, delivered after the closing bell. This email was written by Aaron Back, Editor of Heard on the Street, The Wall Street Journal's home for financial analysis and commentary. To send us your feedback, reply to this email. Got a tip for us? Here's how to submit.