Steady Employment Clashes with Wage Growth for Fed Decision Making

Dow Jones
昨天

1104 ET - The Federal Reserve's decision on whether to raise rates is complicated by the clash of a stable labor market with negative real wage growth, Allianz Investment Management's Charlie Ripley says in a note. The August report's addition of 162,000 jobs reinforces a strong narrative about low growth and low turnover, despite month-to-month volatility, Ripley says. Simultaneously, there's a downward trend in wage growth, which sank to an annual low of 3.09%, he says. Pair that with inflation, and real wage growth is actually negative, Ripley says. Consumers are feeling that squeeze, so raising rates could risk overtightening the economy, he says. August's jobs report shifts September hike expectations sharply, but the outcome is uncertain, Ripley says.

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