Tesla's Cybercab Moment is Coming. Elon Musk Needs to Prove the Car Isn't Just Hype.

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Tesla is about to hold a launch event for the Cybercab, which doesn't have pedals or a steering wheel

Tesla unveiled the Cybercab nearly two years ago. It's planning to reintroduce the vehicle on Thursday.

Tesla investors are gearing up for the company's cybercab launch event, with experts split over whether it will be a huge deal or merely symbolic.

The company is expected to announce that it will begin deploying the custom robotaxi vehicles on its ride-hailing service. That would mark a first for Tesla (TSLA), which has been using its Model Y electric SUVs to ferry customers since it began operating a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025.

The difference between the Cybercab and what's currently offered through the Tesla ride-hailing service is that the Cybercab doesn't have a steering wheel or pedals.

Tesla's event is scheduled to kick off after the market closes on Thursday in downtown Austin, according to Eric Earley, the Cybercab's chief engineer. The full extent of Tesla's plans is unclear, leaving analysts and investors to speculate.

Seth Goldstein at Morningstar doesn't expect Tesla to lay out much that wasn't already known from a high level, adding that the event would be more about offering a signal of progress. Similarly, Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects "limited incrementals" from the event, according to a recent note to clients.

Others have bigger expectations.

Ross Gerber, the CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, told MarketWatch that he thinks Tesla CEO Elon Musk is looking to send the message that "the robotaxis are ready, and we're launching them, and as of right now there's robotaxis in five cities ready to go."

"And then he'll turn them all on and everybody will be like, 'oh my God,'" Gerber added.

Tesla officially debuted the Cybercab in October 2024 as a gold-colored two-seater autonomous vehicle. The vehicle is of key interest to investors, who now broadly view artificial-intelligence initiatives as a bigger priority for Tesla than its core electric-vehicle business.

Tesla put the Cybercab into mass production in April, although Musk said initial manufacturing would be slow. In July, he said Tesla needed to accumulate more testing miles with the vehicle before it could put "a lot" of the cars on the road.

Ahead of Thursday's event, users on social media spotted Cybercabs going through testing on the streets of Austin. Forty-five Cybercabs have been registered with Texas regulators. J.P. Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta said in a client note last month that robotaxi scaling "appears well positioned" as Tesla tests the Cybercab.

"I have personally seen Cybercabs driving on public streets in Austin with no one in the car and no chase car, so the vehicles are already out here," said Abhimanyu Yadav, who first invested in Tesla in 2019 and has taken dozens of robotaxi trips in Austin. Yadav added that he hopes Tesla starts offering Cybercab rides soon after Thursday's event.

Tesla's stock is down about 20% so far this year. There is "more at stake on Thursday" than there has been for prior Tesla events, Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco said in a note. He wrote that "tangible evidence of commercial deployment" could give the stock a boost, while a simple unveiling of the Cybercab will likely lead to a selloff.

Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas said the market is broadly hoping that Tesla won't just announce a geographic expansion, but rather detail a plan to deploy more than just a handful of Cybercabs in some markets. While Tesla currently operates robotaxis in seven cities, the extent of its reach varies.

In Austin, where Tesla is headquartered, 106 vehicles are tagged as being active over the last two months, according to RobotaxiTracker, a crowd-sourced effort. Meanwhile, just three Tesla cars are on the streets in a small, geofenced portion of Miami, according to the website. Tesla began operating in Miami in July.

Ahead of Tesla's event, rivals announced their own expansions. Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), on Tuesday said it now offers fully autonomous rides in 14 cities. And Zoox, which is owned by Amazon.com (AMZN), said it would start testing in San Diego and Houston, giving it a presence in a dozen U.S. cities.

"This is by no means a winner-takes-all market. Just as we saw Uber and Lyft (LYFT), I would expect we see Tesla and Waymo," Goldstein told MarketWatch. He noted that Uber Technologies (UBER) and Lyft are also seeking to capitalize on robotaxis through partnerships with a variety of autonomous-vehicle companies.

-William Gavin

 

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