SpaceX is Barging into New Businesses and Dragging These Power Stocks Down

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SpaceX has had quite a week, roiling the power-equipment manufacturing supply chain by suggesting it needs to get into the business to alleviate key bottlenecks to more AI compute.

Stocks of several companies have been impacted. Wall Street, however, just doesn't see much risk to the part suppliers. Time and trade secrets are the main reasons.

Shares of Elon Musk's rocket and AI company were down 0.9% in premarket trading at $141.10, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were off 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

The main volatility hasn't been in SpaceX shares this week. Shares of power turbine blade manufacturers have been moving as investors try to suss out whether Musk's comments about turbine blades are bullish or bearish for the sector. To be sure, SpaceX barging into new business could mean more competition. But SpaceX is only doing it because it sees a shortage. And shortages typically signal high demand and rising prices.

Coming into Wednesday trading, shares of casting companies Howmet Aerospace and DPC were off about 4% and 6% for the week, respectively. Shares of utility-scale power turbine makers GE Vernova and Siemens Energy were down about 3% and 6%, respectively. Even shares of Caterpillar and Cummins, which have power generation divisions, were off about 3% and 2%, respectively.

Investors were focused on the negative while Wall Street felt differently. Jefferies sees casting technology taking four years or more to ramp up meaningfully. Partly because turbine blades are some of the most complex, technically advanced parts Americans make.

"The time to stand up single-crystal casting, and the depth of the incumbent casters' integrated moat-would point to a smaller impact and initiative than related equities reflected," added 22V Research's Dauvin Peterson in a Tuesday note. That moat includes single-crystal casting (blades have no internal crystals, like an ice cube or other metals), ceramic production, and multi-year qualification requirements for critical parts with the power equipment makers.

"A more probable near-term path is that SpaceX would develop production capabilities for aeroderivative blade and vane spares for SpaceX's own fleet rather than an... assault on the casting oligopoly or, further out, a more vertically integrated challenge to manufacturers like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and FTAI Aviation," added Peterson, noting that SpaceX bought APR Energy earlier this year. APR deploys power-generating equipment fast. It buys turbines from the likes of GE Vernova.

What the power and casting comments from Musk show is that electricity is a potential bottleneck to AI growth. AI data centers could require up to 1,300 terawatt-hours of electricity by the end of the decade, representing a 30% increase in U.S. power production.

Musk is simply trying to get ahead of the issue. What's clear though is that if Musk is right, there will be a lot of business for everyone.

 

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