The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1832 ET [Dow Jones]--New Zealand's central bank is done raising the official cash rate after hiking by 25 basis points to 2.75% yesterday, contends Citi. This outlook is based on Citi's neutral rate estimate of 2.5-2.75%, below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's projection of 3% or higher. "We expect slowing activity indicators to prevent further hikes, as the ongoing negative output gap is incongruent with additional tightening," Citi says. "While risks are skewed toward more hikes, we believe market pricing for the OCR over the next 6-12 months remains too high." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1603 ET - Treasury yields decline as a global bonds selloff eases a bit even while its key drivers remain in place. Oil futures rise 1%, keeping inflation fears alive. The G-20 summit ends without a clear path to reduce massive government debt that muddles the long-term economic outlook. U.S. private-sector job creation disappoints, in the ADP report ahead of Friday's payrolls. Odds of a Fed hike slip to 64% from 67%, according to CME. The 10-year yield slips 0.002 percentage point to 4.793% and the two-year falls 0.008 p.p. to 4.383%, after both reached multi-year highs overnight. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1558 ET - The Japanese yen's sudden strengthening against the dollar this morning isn't big enough to indicate an intervention, Corpay's Karl Schamotta says in an email. He attributes the move, instead, to " traders jumping at shadows." The USDJPY trades at 158.93, after having fallen as low as 158.24 in morning trade. "The yen briefly gapped higher, but then seemed to hit a wall before reversing direction, and is now gradually reverting lower," Schamotta says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1549 ET - Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem played down the impact interest-rate cuts can have in helping an economy dealing with elevated energy prices and heightened uncertainty about trade with the U.S., says Nomura economist Ruchir Sharma. During a press conference, Macklem "reiterated that monetary policy cannot offset the structural effects of tariffs," Sharma says. Macklem is of the view that the policy rate at 2.25% is providing some stimulus to the economy, Sharma adds. He tells clients the governor's reference to firms' adaptability to the turbulent trade environment indicate the BOC is not overly concerned about a deep drop in growth stemming from new U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory duties. Nomura "now see risks more clearly skewed toward tightening" in Canada, Sharma says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1532 ET - Macquarie Group economist David Doyle is now penciling in 1.25 percentage points of rate increases from the Bank of Canada following a review of the central bank's policy decision and Gov. Tiff Macklem's press-conference remarks. Doyle predicts the BOC benchmark rate to reach 3.5% by the end of 2027. He says Macklem played down the growth impacts from escalated US-Canada trade tensions, with the governor noting firms are learning to live with policy uncertainty. And Macklem "expressed several times greater concern" about the upside risks to inflation posed by the U.S.-Iran war, the Macquarie analyst adds. Doyle says private-sector real GDP growth is rebounding sharply, and trade diversification is already under way judging by goods exports data. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1516 ET - The dollar weakens against the Japanese yen, as intervention chatter returns to FX markets. The yen had been trading near 160 per dollar, a mark widely seen as a potential trigger for intervention. The USDJPY falls 0.91% to 158.94, its largest one-day decline since Aug. 19. Japanese and American authorities have since indicated readiness to prop up the yen, including this week at the G-20 summit. Bannockburn's Marc Chandler says in an email the market chatter is that the Fed could have checked rates, a procedure that could be seen as a preparation to intervene, although it's unclear if it was the catalyst for today's move. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.2%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1458 ET - The Bank of Canada "very clearly cracked open the door" to raise interest rates, including as soon as October, says Derek Holt, Bank of Nova Scotia. Holt has been steadfast for months about the possibility of BOC rate hikes this year. Holt notes that Gov. Tiff Macklem was asked directly at a press conference about multiple rate increases to contain inflation. "Macklem not only did not bat it away, he responded in the affirmative," says Holt. He adds Macklem remarks represent a "total narrative shift" from the central bank, which had previously highlighted slow growth, uncertainty over inflation, and less alarm over inflation spreading to non-energy goods. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1456 ET - Capital Economics says the Oct. 28 Bank of Canada policy decision should be considered "live," meaning traders need to be on alert for a possible rate increase. Economist Stephen Brown points to remarks during Gov. Tiff Macklem's press conference, in which the central banker says the next set of forecasts due in October will "really guide our decisions. Our beacon is our 2% inflation target." The forecast is released at the same time as the policy decision. Macklem's remarks on their own "suggests that we should treat every BOC meeting from here as 'live' in terms of a potential rate increase." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1408 ET - After having a breakout August, bitcoin has been quiet so far in September. Bitcoin has lingered around $76,500 to $79,500, says analysts with Bitifinex in a note. That's important, because that range sits above what's referred to as the "true market mean" -- a key source of support for bitcoin at $76,350. Bitcoin has an average return of -2.95% in September, says Bitfinex, forecasting that bitcoin may stay quiet in September before seeing a breakout to close out the rest of the year. Bitcoin slips 0.1% to $77,326, Ethereum falls 1.1% to $2,393, XRP is down 1.2% to $1.34, and solana is down 0.8% to $99.24. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1348 ET - The time is ripe to deploy excess cash, Truist's Chip Hughey says, as bond yields rise while money market funds hold more than $8 trillion, according to the St. Louis Fed. Hughey says expectations of a Fed hike have pushed short-term yields "significantly above" the fed funds rate for the first time in years. He also likes exposure to three-to-10-year bond yields and prefers U.S. fixed income over international alternatives. As for corporate bonds, spreads are tight, but "the reality is that the yields that investment grade and high yield corporates are generating is very elevated on an absolute basis." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1345 ET - Volatility has become the new normal in bond markets, due to geopolitical tensions and less forward guidance from the Fed, Truist's Chip Hughey says. Treasury yields cool down from overnight highs, but remain elevated, with the 10-year trading at 4.798%. Hughey says the decline was caused by a brief "flight to quality." On the other hand, high yields make bonds appealing. "Over the next 12 months, if the 10-year yield were to rise to 5.25%, that bond would actually still produce a positive total return," he says. However, he expects yields to decline alongside oil prices once traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1248 ET - Pending home sales declined year-over-year in August for the first time since last November, Realtor.com says. However, summer delistings are 12.6% below last year's pace, with no notable spike in July or August. The national median list price was $424,500 in August, down 1% from July and 1.3% from a year earlier. While this marked the 10th consecutive month of annual list-price declines, the pace of the decline was roughly half of July's 2.4% drop, Realtor.com says. And 20.4% of active listings had a price reduction, up 0.4 percentage points from July. Higher mortgage rates are meeting a point in the calendar when activity typically slows, and buyers appear to be responding more selectively, Realtor.com says. The key question is whether this is a typical late-summer pause or the start of more persistent softness, according to Realtor.com.