Oil Prices Rise as Renewed U.S.-Iran Fighting Deepens Hormuz Supply Risks

Dow Jones
2小時前
 
 

Oil prices rose about 2% Tuesday as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran heightened concerns that disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could persist.

The front-month Brent crude contract rose 1.7% to $92.05 a barrel in European trading, while West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.3% to $87.77 a barrel.

The latest escalation follows U.S. strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent Iranian retaliation, marking the first direct exchange between the two sides in about a month. The renewed fighting has revived concerns that the conflict could become more prolonged and further disrupt oil flows through the Persian Gulf. About a fifth of the world's oil supplies flowed through Hormuz before the war started in late February.

"The key is whether this ignites further rounds of strikes from both sides, and whether it leaves shippers hesitant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz," ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said.

Analysts at MUFG said shipping conditions remain fragile despite Gulf producers continuing to export through Hormuz. Persistent geopolitical tensions and tanker attacks are likely to keep a risk premium embedded in crude prices, with producers' ability to maintain exports through the waterway remaining a key factor for the market.

Industry firms that count ships, oil output and imports haven't been able to verify the full volume of oil the U.S. claims is getting through Iran's chokehold on Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, said this week that oil flows through the strait may be higher than initial vessel-tracking data suggest, as movements made without live signals can take days to confirm.

Supply risks are also being compounded elsewhere. Russia extended its diesel-export ban through the end of September, a move ING said would add to stress in global middle-distillate markets already disrupted by reduced Persian Gulf supplies.

Meanwhile, Washington is pursuing a potentially significant expansion of Venezuelan oil production. A U.S.-backed company plans to deploy more than 50 drilling rigs as part of a development program covering 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing about 65 billion barrels of crude.

Any meaningful supply response, however, is likely to be gradual. Rystad Energy expects Venezuela's near-term recovery to be led by redevelopment of existing fields, with major new Orinoco production becoming meaningful only from around 2035. Its base case sees Venezuelan output reaching around 2.3 million barrels a day by 2035, while political, contractual and execution risks remain substantial.

 
 

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