Adobe should score an earnings beat when it delivers its quarterly financials next week if one analyst is right, but he's still worried about the software developer's long-term growth.

On Tuesday, Citi's Tyler Radke said he "wouldn't be surprised" by a beat-and-raise fiscal third quarter for Adobe after it lowered its annual recurring revenue guidance by about $500 million. The company reports after the stock market closes on Sept. 10.

Analysts are projecting $6.69 billion in revenue and earnings of $4.48 a share.

Radke maintained a Neutral rating on the stock and raised the price target to $301 from $228. He attributed the increase to higher tech stock valuations-not an improvement in Adobe's fundamentals.

In afternoon trading, shares were down 1.5% at $288.36-caught up in a broad tech selloff. The stock is off nearly 18% this year.

Though Radke expects a beat, he doesn't think Adobe is in the clear.

One worry is its Creative Suite tools like Photoshop and Illustrator. Some clients consolidated their paid licenses to consider cheaper competitors. The company, for example, kept Creative Cloud Pro discounted at 50% off in August to boost sales.

Another one is a slowdown in logins to standard-user accounts. Still, web visits to Adobe's home page and AI studio Firefly. Sentiment around Firefly has also improved because of updates to features and enterprise government protections, the analyst wrote.

And Adobe's long-term growth has Radke stepping carefully. He thinks the company is relying too heavily on people who use the basic products for free and doubts how effectively they can be converted to paid subscribers in fiscal 2027.

Adobe is also working through leadership changes. CFO Dan Durn left in June for the same job at Marvell Technology. In March, CEO Shantanu said he would step down after more than 18 years after a successor had been found. He will stay on as chairman.